Mauer's home run propensity declined a bit over the final four months of the season, but he still finished with 28 jacks, more than doubling his previous career high. The rapid power development rounded out the one aspect of Mauer's offensive game, transforming him from a great hitter to the American League's most threatening hitter. He easily captured league MVP honors at season's end. At 26, it seemed that Mauer had finally discovered his power stroke.
Now, we're two months in to the 2010 season and Mauer has hit just two home runs. He's been healthy and his game is holding up in other aspects -- still hitting .321 with a .396 on-base percentage, still walking more than striking out, still driving in runs -- but Mauer's ability to put the ball over the fence has all but evaporated. After homering once per every 19 at-bats last year, Mauer has gone deep just twice in 159 at-bats in 2010.
The drop-off was hardly impossible to foresee. Here's what I said about Mauer in my preseason writeup of the catcher position:
As pitchers continue to adjust to Mauer, who hit nearly all his home runs to the opposite field last year, I suspect we'll see some reduction in the home run proclivity, particularly considering that many of his round-trippers barely cleared the wall last season. One might argue that a drop-off in homer frequency might be offset by not missing a month of the season, but it probably isn't realistic to expect a whole lot more than 600 plate appearances from Mauer this year given that his previous career high in that category was 633 (again, this only helps reinforce how amazingly durable Mauer was after coming off the disabled list last year). I'd guess that Mauer's home run total this year will drop closer to 20 while his doubles total moves closer to 40.
True to form, Mauer's home run output has taken a dive early in this new season while he's on pace to set a career high with 41 doubles. Of course, the homer decline is more drastic than even I could have expected, as he'd have a very tough time reaching even double-digits at his current rate, but I suspect Mauer will bump up his long-ball tendencies over the next several months to finish with a respectable figure. Any thoughts that he might eclipse or surpass his homer total from a year ago are pretty much out the window at this point, though.
14 comments:
I'm guessing the move from the Dome, to Target has something to do with it. He had a lot of JE homers last year, and it looks like those aren't leaving the yard this year.
I'm guessing the move from the Dome, to Target has something to do with it. He had a lot of JE homers last year, and it looks like those aren't leaving the yard this year.
That definitely seems to be playing into it. For those wondering what "JE" means, it refers to a "Just Enough" home run, as categorized by hittracker.com. Mauer ranked fifth in the AL with 11 JE home runs, all of which seemed to barely get over the Metrodome's left field wall. In Target Field, those balls seem to be turning into doubles and outs.
Also, it's possible Mauer simply had an absurdly good year last year, and in reality he's naturally closer to a 15 HR/year than a 30 HR/year guy.
For me, Mauer hitting homeruns isn't all that important. Some of the greatest hitters for average haven't been homerun hitter: Boggs (avg 8 per year); Gwynn (avg 9 per year); Ichiro (avg 9 per year).
What I am more interested in a great player are things like on base percentage, rbi's and runs scored. Here Mauer is .408/92/97.
I did a "random" sampling of other players worth mentioning: G Brett (.369/95/95); T Gwynn (.388/76/92); Ichiro (.378/58/109); Boggs (.415/67/100); Pujols (.427/129/123); A Rodriguez (.389/128/125).
Taking that group into consideration and how Mauer stacks up, I could care less how many times he is hitting it out of the park. How often is he getting on base; how often is he scoring; how often is he plating guys with his bat? That is what matters.
"...still driving in runs"
Really?
Really?
Why the confusion? Driving in runs is an important function for a guy hitting behind two players with OBP figures north of .370. Mauer is hitting .327 with RISP so he's getting the job done in that respect, even with the power down.
Taking that group into consideration and how Mauer stacks up, I could care less how many times he is hitting it out of the park. How often is he getting on base; how often is he scoring; how often is he plating guys with his bat? That is what matters.
It's true that Mauer can still be a very valuable offensive contributor even without the home runs, but to say that power doesn't matter just because he's so good in other areas is downright silly. The addition of upper-echelon power to his game made Mauer a much, much more valuable player last year.
When the guy is set to be making $23 million annually, I think it's plenty fair to nitpick the specific aspects of his game that aren't up to par. Two home runs in two months is disappointing, plain and simple.
I agree. The addition of power last year was definitely a factor in giving him such a huge contract
It's true that Mauer can still be a very valuable offensive contributor even without the home runs, but to say that power doesn't matter just because he's so good in other areas is downright silly.
I am tempted to agree with you, but may I take another random sampling, this time from hitters who average at least 19-20 HRS a year and their rbi's and runs scored?
Puckett (19 HR's avg) - 99/97
Brett (19) - 95/95
Schmidt (37) - 107/101
C Fielder (35) - 111/82
Thome - (40) 111/105
Etc.
And so, I take your point. There are some numbers (like Pujols and ARods and Thomes) that seem to show that power is valuable but, I would contend, that a hitter who can simply get on base and hit consistently, like Mauer (with someone on or not), will be as valuable as a power hitter (as Puckett's and Brett's #'s are lower than Mauer's) without the excluding the possibility of them being more valuable (as wek know, power hitters are prone to strikeouts unlike Mauer).
Can we just admit Mauer had a career year last year and that he is not going to duplicate that again? He is a singles to doubles hitter and that's it. He was never a power hitter.
I can't believe you didn't mention TARGET FIELD!! Mauer's inside-out, left-center HR sweet spot doesn't set-up well at Target Field. The ball just doesn't carry. In addition, the 23-FOOT WALL (why doesn't anyone mention this...?) that extends all the way to the left-center power alley (the baggie didn't extend that far!!) will turn a lot of would-be homers into doubles, and not only for Mauer, but primarily Morneau and Kubel.
In addition to the "Just Enough" factor there's also this: Target Field has a Home Run Park Factor of .562, while "Mall of American Field" (the 'Dome) had a Home Run Park Factor of 1.111 last season.
So, three things: (1) He was on fire at the start of last year (fresh legs?); (2) he got lucky last year (Just Enough); (3) new ballpark isn't helping him thus far, particularly since he a disproportionate number of HRs to the power alley in LF. Summer may not help him at home very much since prevailing winds will be from the south, that is, blowing straight out to right.
Summer may not help him at home very much since prevailing winds will be from the south, that is, blowing straight out to right.
Harmon Killebrew mentioned on a broadcast not too long ago that the old Met was laid out in the same way as Target Field, and that home runs were hard to come by early in the year but by middle June the wind would switch and more balls would start leaving the park. Whether or not this actually happens (although it would be really cool if Killer got it right), we have to remember that the park is only 2 months old, and it's been pretty darn cold and rainy just about every game in April and May. IOW what we have here is a SSS for a new park!
Most HR's at Target Field so far seem to be "no doubters" and Mauer just typically isn't a guy who hits moon shots. Morneau doesn't have too many HR's at TF either, although he's missed a few because of that stupid 23-foot high wall out where it's 380 feet to home plate. I have no idea why they extended the wall that far out. He hit a 400+ foot line drive the other day that missed being a HR by a foot or less. And of course he was stranded.
how many of those "JE" balls did the yankees hit last year? They built a fraud stadium to justify paying all these big name guys. Most games at Target have been night and the air and wind is wicked this time of the year. Watch when summer comes, those balls are gonna be crackin off the bats. Also, I feel like pitchers arent giving him great pitchs. I dont know the stat, but i feel like Mauer & Morneau have been walking A LOT.
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