On June 1st, the Tigers completed a sweep of the Twins at Comerica Park. After that loss, Minnesota sat 16.5 games out of first place with a miserable 17-37 record.
Since then, they have gone 24-11 and gained 10 games on Detroit in the standings. While a 6.5-game deficit at the All-Star break is daunting, it's not insurmountable. Ron Gardenhire has been there before.
In 2003, the Twins lost 12 of 13 games heading into the break and sat 7.5 out when the Midsummer Classic rolled around. Coincidentally, it was at that very point that their season turned around completely.
Over that All-Star break, Terry Ryan traded for Shannon Stewart, who assumed lead-off duties for a team that suddenly became the hottest in baseball. The Twins went 45-23 the rest of the way, finishing with 90 wins and taking the division handily.
If this year's Twins could match the .660 post-break winning percentage achieved by that '03 club, they would finish with 89 wins, which could very well be enough to come out on top.
The second-half surge in '03 was made possible by strong starting pitching, a capable lineup and a crummy division. All those factors would seem to be in place at present. The missing ingredient, though, is an external jolt.
While it makes for a tidy storyline to claim that Stewart came aboard and single-handedly carried the club to the playoffs, it wasn't that simple. Many other players contributed heavily in the comeback, including some kid named Santana who (finally) got a shot in the rotation. But Stewart did address a significant weakness on the roster, and his arrival did send a signal to fans and players alike that the front office was in it to win it despite the sizable deficit.
I don't think we'll see any players brought in via trade during this year's All-Star break, but the Twins must be considered buyers at this point and already are making moves to strengthen their roster by adding Trevor Plouffe and Delmon Young. These moves will be the subject of the next post here.
Monday, July 11, 2011
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26 comments:
Not only were they struggling horribly in 2003 at the break, they were faced with a 4 game showdown with oakland to start the 2nd half. Oakland easily had the best and most dominating starting staff in baseball and the twins came a sway with a 4 game sweep. In those days oakland didn't get swept by anybody, especially 4 in a row.
They absolutely have to get Burnett out of that bullpen to have any chance whatsoever. They have to upgrade right now with somebody better because he's an incredible liability. I'm not sure what else he has to do to have be demoted.
Speaking of Burnett, why the hell is he still with the Major League club? Is he out of options (and if so...so?)? If I'm the Twins I recall Chuck James and demote Burnett, you'd think he was Gardy's kid or something the way the Twins have kept him around.
Buyers?
I think they should stick with the guys they have, rather than deal assets to push for a division title, only to get bounced again. This team has too many holes to win in the playoffs.
Division titles are great, but the Twins have won plenty. I know they still have a chance... but really, does anyone have any confidence in this club to get deep into the postseason?
Stick with the status quo within the organization, even sell if you get a great offer on a guy you'd consider moving anyway, and see what happens.
Bill Smith trades make me nervous.
The two weeks after the all star break will probably tell us everything about how the second half of the season will go.
We have 12 games at home, all against division opponents. This is our chance to really get back in this. But if we only go 6-6 with a tough AL West road trip to follow that, we are probably done.
It should be really fun to watch this crucial home stand.
The Twins are getting a lot of stars back, and some back in their groove. Nish and Mauer both started to pick it up offensively and were showing signs of being completely rehabilitated. I'm not sure we need to add via FA, but getting healthy will also give us a jolt (Kubel, Thome, a healthy Mauer and Nishi, and Kevin Slowey). I would be more concerned with Nick Blackburn's sudden loss of sink on his fastball and whether or not he should remain with the Twins. I like the idea of the Twins selling Blackburn and Young to make way for the young talent that's coming to Minnesota.
If I'm the Twins I recall Chuck James and demote Burnett,
Pretty sure if the Twins had a RH option at AAA, he'd be in the bullpen already. I don't doubt Burnett's spot is in jeopardy, but I doubt it'll be James as his replacement. If I was Mijares, though, I'd be seeking week-to-week leases on my apartment.
I notice your posts seem to be few and far between when the Twins are actually winning....
The "external jolt" we need is the return to form of Nathan, Mauer, and Morneau. We're seeing some of that from the first two, hopefully Morneau's surgery will fix what's been ailing him. Nishioka's looking better now that's he's getting some games under his belt. Kubel and Span will be returning, soon. A return to health probably provides as much jolt as anything we're going to pick up in a trade.
I'm with Panda, let's see how these next 12 games play out before we make any major decisions. Sell Slowey for some immediate bullpen help, let's get that done, now. Personally, I'd be OK with selling Delmon, I think that Revere can replace Young's production, assuming that Span is coming back in 7-10 days like they're saying. After this homestand, we'll have a better idea of whether we sell guys like Thome, Capps, Cuddyer, Kubel, and Liriano. Bottom line, those guys aren't all coming back next year. If things go well, keep them and see if we can make a run. If things go south, let's decide who our core is going to be and get something more that sandwich picks back for the guys that aren't going to be here next year.
I watched the end of the Women's World Cup win, yesterday, instead of the start of the Twins game. I'm not a soccer fan and I really don't watch any women's sports, but it was incredible drama. I only missed a half an inning of the Twins game. Am I still allowed to comment on this site?
Also, the Twins should have TK fill in more frequently on the TV broadcasts. I thought his perspective as a former manager was informative and insightful. I felt like I actually learned something about the game listening to him. Maybe a little dry for the average fan, but I'd love to hear him do more games.
I would like to see them trade both Slowey and Mijares for one really good left-handed relief pitcher.
The question for this season is, what would be the external jolt?
If the Twins decide to be buyers, do they have enough parts to make anything beyond one "big" move? And what priority should they make these moves in?
If you think this lineup can "get the job done" as it is, does that make the focus a strong reliever in the bullpen to take pressure off Capps/Nathan/Perkins?
If Kubel and Young come back healthy who of Kubel/Young/Cuddyer do you keep going forward and who do you consider expendable?
I notice your posts seem to be few and far between when the Twins are actually winning....
You're right, June's total of 14 posts represented a shocking drop-off from April and May's totals of 15 and 16.
Posts have been a bit less frequent this year in general, which has more to do with a busy schedule than anything else.
If Kubel and Young come back healthy who of Kubel/Young/Cuddyer do you keep going forward and who do you consider expendable?
I think they'll just have to play it by ear. If Morneau's still out, there's room for Kubel, Young and Cuddyer in the lineup.
I would like to see them trade both Slowey and Mijares for one really good left-handed relief pitcher.
If they want a good LH relief pitcher they can call up Chuck James or move Brian Duensing to the bullpen. RH relief help is a far greater need in this organization.
Bill Smith trades make me nervous.
You and me both. He's generally done well with minor trades (Cabrera, Rauch, Pavano, Fuentes, etc) so I was thinking more along those lines.
You're right, June's total of 14 posts represented a shocking drop-off from April and May's totals of 15 and 16.
What about the 3 posts so far in July? That only projects to 8.45 posts this month ;)
I hope you realize we are just giving you a hard time.
Young has to be the odd man out in the outfield if Kubel and Span come back healthy and productive to start the second half. Revere has been a spark plug for us and has to stay in the line up. Left field can help hide his weak arm.
A huge boost would be to call up Gibson like we did with Liriano back in 06!
This recent surge could end up hurting the Twins in the long-run. The question of being buyers or sellers now may jeopardize what would be a great year to bolster the farm.
They have great trading assets. Cuddyer is currently playing above his numbers and is prime trade bait. I say keep Kubel- he's younger and will sign for less than Cuddyer and has comparable production (at the plate).
Thome would be a great addition to a playoff-bound team with a crummy DH.
Slowey needs to go.
Looking forward, the Twins need a powerful right handed bat in the lineup. This may be a good year to re-sign Delmon since his production is lower than it will be. He is still only 25. If you go the other way with him he could still fetch a decent package.
With all these questions the Twins can't make any real decisions for two more weeks. These inter division games will be crucial in the buyer/ seller decision. Leapfroggin three teams is still a tall order at this stage of the season even with the recent success of the club.
"You're right, June's total of 14 posts represented a shocking drop-off from April and May's totals of 15 and 16."
Haha I love your sarcastic responses to the grumpy jerks who occasionally post on your blog!
Anywho, You and Gleeman by far have the best Twins blogs. Keep up the great work Nick.
TheLevithian said...
Any relation to "The Leviathan?"
Re: Duensing.
B/c moving your most consistent (in terms of QS%) starter (or one of most effective in terms of ESPN's AGS) into the bullpen where he will throw 2/3 of an inning is a great use of personnel resources. That must be why Texas left Ogando in the bullpen after that abortive attempt to move him into the starting rotation: b/c you'd always rather have an effective short inning guy rather than a solid starter.
Really good lefty reliever was Fuentes last year. We should've kept him.
Really good lefty reliever was Fuentes last year. We should've kept him. But at least Perkins stepped in that role. He's good enough to pitch to eighties with his stuff. But Gardy will always play the matchups.
"A huge boost would be to call up Gibson like we did with Liriano back in 06!"
Doubtful...Gibson doesn't have the electric numbers that Liriano had. Gibson has struggled with his stamina recently, and truly should be viewed as more of a September call-up versus someone who can have immediate impact. Based on how our 5 starters have performed of late, would he even be an upgrade right now? It would be a tough one to argue for.
Interesting but I'd be shocked if they win the Central this year due to their numerous hitter injuries and shaky relief. One thing that gives me small optimism for my beloved Twinkies is that they are the only team in the Central that has played fewer games at home than away(39/50 = 11). By the way, why do the Twins continue to struggle year after year against the AL East??? Does anyone know if the Twinkies ever had a season ending winning record against the AL EAST??? I've been following the Twins since the late 60's. I won't even mention the perennial playoff losses to the Yankees.
What they need is a CC Sabathia type number one ace. That is the jolt they need and it's what they've needed since they sent santana away.
"I think they'll just have to play it by ear. If Morneau's still out, there's room for Kubel, Young and Cuddyer in the lineup."
But if they have to hold on to all three, do they have the pieces otherwise to make a trade for something?
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