On June 18, I mused about Ron Gardenhire's arrogant response to reporters asking him about some of the team's potential concerns ("Minnesota Twins! We're in first place guys!"). I contended that many of those questions were valid, given that despite the team's place atop the AL Central standings, they'd just finished up a rather soft portion of their schedule with rather pedestrian results and were coming upon a far more difficult stretch in which those aforementioned concerns could come to the forefront.
In the 10 days since I wrote that post, the Twins have gone 3-6 while allowing the Tigers to close within a half-game of first place, with the surging White Sox just a game behind them.
The Twins' offense has disappeared on certain days as the team continues to receive less production than expected from key players like Denard Span, Joe Mauer and Michael Cuddyer. J.J. Hardy's return still is not in sight. Orlando Hudson is back but has hit just .147/.216/.176 with 11 strikeouts and only three walks in 37 plate appearances since returning from the disabled list (entering play yesterday), suggesting that his wrist is continuing to cause problems.
More alarming than the offense's slump, however, is the complete deterioration of the rotation outside of Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano. While those two continue to perform well, the team's other three starters have combined to produce a 5.24 ERA while allowing 321 hits and 42 home runs over 259 1/3 innings. Scott Baker has failed to get on track after getting his season off to a characteristically slow start, Kevin Slowey looks like a lesser pitcher in the wake of major offseason wrist surgery, and Nick Blackburn's inability to miss bats -- or even induce weak contact with regularity -- has turned him into one of the league's worst starters.
The lineup's current lull is likely to turn around at some point and shouldn't be an ongoing concern but the struggles of 60 percent of the starting rotation show no signs of going away. To his credit, Ron Gardenhire has sought to address the team's run-scoring issues by using Cuddyer at third base, and soon he will need to start taking measures to stem the rotation's bleeding. That might start with adding Brian Duensing to the rotation and it might ultimately lead to a heated trade deadline pursuit of Cliff Lee.
The Twins are amidst an ugly slump. That's nothing to panic about -- it happens to nearly every team over the course of a season -- but the problems facing this club are real and shouldn't be downplayed just because the Twins are maintaining a slim lead in the standings.
Make no mistake: if they continue to play the way they are now during their upcoming homestand against the Rays and Tigers, Gardy's Twins won't be in first place when the All-Star break comes around.
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28 comments:
Knee jerk uninformed reaction; Trade for big Z!!
The Twins haven't played consistently well since April, so I'm not sure this can be dismissed as a mere slump. What are they, .500 since May 1? That's not good for a team with this talen. The squad is underachieving, plain and simple.
Ed,
I tend to agree. Punto has a -11 UZR at SS, but a very good UZR at 3b. Although Hardy can't hit, I would like him back, just to shore up the infield and get Cuddy out of there at 3b.
There isn't a hitter struggling more than Cuddy getting at bats with runners on, or getting more meaningless hits. He is an out machine in meaningful situations. Gardy still keeps him in the lineup at the expense of others. At least move him down.
This team is very, very hard to watch and it's been that way for almost 2 months. I think many of us expect a little more.
Yeah, Cuddy needs a day off. Get Kubel and Thome into the lineup, well playing a competent third basemen at third. Cuddyer has essentially been a league average player so far this year.
In the 10 days since I wrote that post, the Twins have gone 3-6 while allowing the Tigers to close within a half-game of first place, with the surging White Sox just a game behind them.
Go Nick!
I think the offense, Cuddy included, will get back on track. When Mauer isn't hitting it seems other guys struggle along with him. Hudson needs to get healthy. No sense having him in there otherwise, and he hasn't looked very healthy to me. Span will also produce more eventually, as well.
As for the pitchers? Whew. I can see why you'd keep guys around; Baker has decent stuff when he's "on," Blackburn pitched well in big games in the past and posted .500 records his first two full years @ almost 200 IP, Slowey appears to have upside but last year's surgery must still be playing a part. "Keeping around" for Blackburn especially, might be a tour of AAA, he needs to straighten some things out. Frustrating to watch them run him out there every 5th game only to get smoked...
Forget it, I'm not the blogger, but the Twins border on un-watchable right now.
Baker and Slowey will be fine. As you pointed out, Baker is a slow starter each year, plus he has a career-high K rate and his BB rate is below his career average. Slowey is coming off surgery, so some inconsistency should be expected early on. The further from surgery he moves, the better he should get. His K rate and BB rate are right around the norm for him. Only slightly worse than his career averages. Blackburn is the big concern, but the Twins can replace him with Duensing (or trade for a pitcher). Baker and Slowey haven't had all that many bad starts, they have just had several at the same time while Blackburn also is struggling. I'm not overly concerned at this point. Much better now than in August or September.
Baker and Slowey will be fine. As you pointed out, Baker is a slow starter each year, plus he has a career-high K rate and his BB rate is below his career average.
Baker is definitely the one I'm least worried about, mainly because his peripherals -- as you mentioned -- are very nice. (He is leaving an awful lot of meatballs out over the plate though. I was watching the Mets telecast of Sunday's game and their announcers were remarking with bewilderment at how many fat, hittable pitchers Baker left hanging.)
Slowey and Blackburn give legitimate cause for concern though.
I do think Baker is going to be fine. He's got a 30 to 3 strikeout to walk rate this month, but is having his share of bad luck with the long ball.
I read that post ten days and commented that I hate it when managers or people in a leadership rest on their laurels rather than focus on improving the small issues. You would never hear Bill Belichick or Phil Jackson say we're in first place during the middle of a season.
these pitchers throw too many strikes and too many hittable strikes, even when the count is heavily in their favor. that's what the twins preach, throw strikes. sure, it is nice to have a great k/bb ratio, but what does that matter when the guys you don't strike out are hitting the hell out of the ball. in a lot of situations they need to concentrate on not throwing a strike (0-2) and trying to get a guy to chase a pitch instead of trying to throw a strike on the corners. that way, when they miss with their location, they aren't leaving a fat pitch over the heart of the plate.
they have played horribly lately and are still in first place, so if they can turn it around, they should still be able to run away with the division. they likely won't go anywhere in the playoffs though.
too many very hittable pitchers, too many hitters that don't know when to work a count and when to jump on a good pitch, too many guys that don't know how to run the bases, too many coaches that don't do anything but defend their stupid decisions.
i'm betting on another 1st place finish in the division and another pathetic showing in the playoffs.
baker is not having bad luck. he is having good luck that more of his meatballs aren't getting crushed over the fence.
Couldn't disagree more with the "throw more balls" argument. Thats how you get 5 inning wonders with 7 k's and a tired ass bullpen. Not to mention a few aweful walks. This isn't little league, guys have somewhat of a clue that a pitcher may bounce one on 0-2. I already know you are thinking, "but what if they throw filthy almost strike balls instead of balls in the dirt?". Well, that kind of pitching leads to one of two things. 1 - you hang that curve 12" higher than you intended and its a meatball. 2 - you actually have such command that you can make a pitch slightly out of the strike zone. But that begs the question, why don't you throw a great command pitch just on the corner of the strike zone?
I can't believe that I actually posted a rebuttle to someone recomending pitchers "concentrate on not throwing a strike"...
are you shitting me? we would love to have our pitchers go 5 innings right now. we already have a tired ass bullpen. are you even watching the games? when you are getting crushed on 0-2 counts, you can't be happy about throwing a lot of strikes. a 30-3 strikeout-walk ratio doesn't mean anything when you are getting knocked around. when the pitchers are ahead in the count, they need to use that to their advantage instead of "pounding the strike zone."
Fielding a competent defense would probably help the pitchers era. Cuddy should not be an option at 3b. Getting hardy at SS with help their defense a lot and replacing anyone on the roster with cuddy will too. Cuddys got a 730 ops and is likely the worst defensive 3b in the league. If he had a 850 ops maybe, but cuddy is at best average offensively and very bad defensively.
Gardy's insufferable loyalty to "his guys," which in this case means keeping Cuddy plugged into the heart of the lineup instead of our only REAL right-handed threat this year (Delmon), is costing this team runs. I've grown more and more tired of Gardy playing favorites at the expense of wins over the last few years. When does Gardy's free pass expire?
Ryan,
"When does Gardy's free pass expire?"
Never, man, never. You've got to resign yourself to it, just go with it. It's Gardy Senior High out there, you've got the cliques, the teacher's pets, the crushes, everything.
All I know, is that a 6-18 postseason record (including 9 straight postseason losses) would get him run out of most serious baseball towns.
Here, though, success is measured by AL Central titles. Playoffs are irrelevant. I mean, we're a little engine that could, we can't be expected to compete with the Big Bad Yankees.
Right?
I have to agree that Cuddy has been pretty horrific at third, I could live with it in the NL parks to keep Kubel and Young both in the lineup, but now that we're back in AL parks, keep him in RF. I groan when he K's on sliders in the dirt and pounds into DPs, but he seems to be stinging it a little more, lately.
blah
"Ryan M. Boser said...
All I know, is that a 6-18 postseason record (including 9 straight postseason losses) would get him run out of most serious baseball towns."
I got a solution for you. Let's do 4th place for 10 or 20 years. GUARANTEED...NO POSTSEASON LOSSES...then you can be content.
Regards,
David McGraw
"I got a solution for you. Let's do 4th place for 10 or 20 years. GUARANTEED...NO POSTSEASON LOSSES...then you can be content."
We've always "been the bridesmaid but never the bride" (in recent history) to give you an analogy. That's why it bothers some of us and is why we're not "content" with the Twins play at the moment.
If you're fine with mediocre and being swept out of the playoffs every year, so be it, but don't knock the people who want to see more out of them because they know the level of ball this Twins team is capable of playing (which is far better than 'mediocre').
As that radio commercial says, average (=mediocre) is only the best of the lousiest and lousiest of the best. And I am NOT CONTENT with that this year, and neither should you be.
"We've always "been the bridesmaid but never the bride" (in recent history) to give you an analogy. That's why it bothers some of us and is why we're not "content" with the Twins play at the moment.
If you're fine with mediocre and being swept out of the playoffs every year, so be it, but don't knock the people who want to see more out of them because they know the level of ball this Twins team is capable of playing (which is far better than 'mediocre').
As that radio commercial says, average (=mediocre) is only the best of the lousiest and lousiest of the best. And I am NOT CONTENT with that this year, and neither should you be."
I LOVE the IF you like being mediocre... That is Unadulterated BS, or maybe it's just a steaming "Cow Pie".
Please tell me WHICH year that the Twins have EVER been in the play-off's or WS that they had the BEST personnel? It WAS NOT 1965, It WAS ABSOLUTLELY NOT 1987, and probably NOT 1991. They happened to be pretty good in 1991, BUT were probably the 3rd best team entering the play-offs.
I don't think I said I was content, just realistic. The play-offs are a crap shoot. Since the Wild Card was instituted, the Team with the Best Record (aka: BEST Team) has won twice, the teams with the Worst record of the qualifiers has won twice. (NOTE: a team TIED for Best record has always won once.
Tonight it looks like the Twins will be back in 1st place. LA DEE DAH. 10 days or so ago, to be in first place was a record to deserve derision. Nick mentioned that Twins fans are knowledgable and sophisticated. What a bunch of bunk!!! Reading the posts last week NOT ONE individual who lamented the idiocy of being in 1st place seemed to have ANY CONCEPT that in order to have an opportunity to compete in the WS, a team should be in 1st place to guarantee that opportunity (and yes I know there is a wild card...a 1 in 3 proposition).
Then there was the side splitter a couple of days before that it's the double-play crisis...so lets change the teams approach in 430 odd AB's to avoid a Double play in at least 16...what could go wrong? OF Course, with a runner on 1st and less than 2 outs, you can see the guys in the dugout laughing about WHO get's to ground into the DP.
Have things been frustrating? ABSOLUTELY!!! BUT, the season DOES NOT end until Monday, so relax and enjoy the last few games of the season. Than bitch and moan all you want.
Hopefully the sarcasm is dripping, and IT IS intended.
Regards,
David McGraw
David,
If the playoffs are such a "crap shoot" (hilarious), wouldn't the Twins, with 5 division titles since 02 or whatever, have managed to win one under Gardy? No? Won even a series since 02? No? Won a GAME in their last 3 trips? No?
Hmm. I'm going to go out on a limb and say the playoffs are about more than luck.
yeah, it's not about luck. it's about the underdogs getting hot at the right time and/or the favored team hitting a slump. sometimes the seeding doesn't even reflect the win/loss records because the wild card team can have a better record than the 2 seed. the twins have been the #2 seed before even though they are clearly inferior to the wild card team coming from the east. they could even get the #1 seed since they are playing in the weak central, but that doesn't make them better than NY, Boston or Tampa. the records don't mean much, what everyone is saying is that the twins team is only good enough to win a series against the elite teams (yankees, tampa, etc) 1 or 2 times out of 10. not exactly a crap shoot. if we get hot at the right time, we can beat them, but it is not a crap shoot.
the double plays: in situations like where we have the bases loaded, why would you not try and hit a fly ball? in situations where a double play is a huge rally killer or where we need 1 run, then yes, absolutely the approach should be changed. we're not saying that the approach should be changed in every double play situation. that would be ridiculous. yes, double plays are always annoying, but when they are killers is when the bases are loaded or when 1 run changes the game. it's not hard to see that the twins have been hitting into way too many double plays in those situations and need to start putting the ball in the air.
David,
Sarcastically calling out us "knowledgeable fans" for these opinions demonstrates your lack of ability to look at a bigger picture, and is laughable coming from you because of the way you approach and convey you're argument. Case in point: -> Instead of focusing on just the "top record team" and "worst record team" in the playoffs, look at them all.
Percentage wise, the Playoffs are NOT a "crap shoot" (I also find this hilarious) like you suggest. In fact, in my opinion, its not even close.
Since you're talking the Wild Card Era, 12 of the 15 World Series Winners during that time were in the top 4 (record wise) of all playoff participants. That's an 80% tilt toward the "better" teams winning the Championships, compared to the "lucky" teams.
If I go even broader (big picture here) looking at overall MLB standings and League specific standings in those 15 years, The Champions have had a top 5 record in all of baseball 11 times (and many teams with top 5 overall records have missed the playoffs due to the wild card system). Champions have had a top 3 record in their respective League 13 times. 6 Times the World Champion has had the best record in its respective League, 3 times they've had the best overall MLB record, and 10 times the Champ has had the #1 or #2 W-L record in the AL or NL.
Do you see a pattern here yet? Cause it sure as hell isn't "luck". The "Good" teams win.
The only teams to get "lucky" in all these years are the 2000 New York Yankees and 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, both of whom had the 5th best record in their respective league in those seasons.
"Opportunity" is nice in lollipop land, but "Competing" is another story.
BTW - Twins are tied for the 11th best record in baseball right now, and are 6th in the American League. Those odds don't play too well with all the information I've given, as in those 15 Wild Card Era years, NO TEAM with a worse than 5th place record in their league has won a championship, and only 1 with a worse than top 10 overall MLB record got "lucky" to pull out a championship (that was the 2006 Cardinals, who had the 12th best record in the Majors).
End of rant.
Also, Twins played awesome last night, which was good to see among their current "slump". So if they could keep something like that up for awhile, all these arguments would be moot because they would again be one of the games' "good" teams.
Regards David McGraw,
Which of the last 2 playoff sweeps was your favorite? 2006 was fun, but you can't beat last year's Game 2 meltdown in the Bronx. Or maybe you prefer the Game 163 from 2008? A heartbreaker, that one.
Hell, if you go back to '04 we stole a game from the Yanks! '03 too! What a crap shoot! Well, I guess Santana was pitching those games, so maybe those games were more about talent, and actually not a crap shoot at all. Anyway who can forget that Game 1 in '04. One of those "where were you when..." moments.
Shucks, call me a homer, but I bet the Twins can steal another game from the Yanks this year, if they can win Game 163. I'm calling it now, 3-1 Yanks, but boy that win'll make it all worth it. Plus we should be set up for another run for the division in '11!
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