When the Twins acquired Carl Pavano in August of 2009, his fastball was averaging almost 91 miles per hour and he was striking out 16 percent of the batters he faced. In two seasons since, his velocity has dropped by two miles per hour and his K-rate has descended steadily, to 13 percent in 2010 and 11 percent in 2011.
Among qualifying major-league starters, only Brad Penny had a lower K/9 mark last year than Pavano's 4.1. A lack of whiffs isn't necessarily a death knell, especially when you can limit walks and homers, and Pavano's propensity for pitching to contact has helped him efficiently rack up 220 innings in consecutive years, but in order to succeed with this style a pitcher needs help from his defense and a certain measure of luck.
Last year Pavano didn't benefit much in those areas; nor did his staff mates, as the Twins finished with the worst defensive efficiency (converting batted balls into outs) in all of baseball. While the club's fielding is expected to improve this season, it would take a rather drastic turnaround for it to be considered a strength.
Pavano has been a fairly extreme ground ball pitcher in each of the past two years, so infield defense will likely be a key factor in his success. Around the diamond, the Twins will be relying on a third baseman who was repeatedly scolded for his passive defensive approach last year, a shortstop who's 38 and spent much of his career as a utility man, a mistake-prone second baseman with a reputation for losing focus, and a first baseman who's looked foggy in the field since being concussed.
In other words, if Pavano's strikeout rate continues to slide, it's a good bet that he'll once again rank among the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball. He may be able to overcome that and hold value as a serviceable innings eater, but it's not a label you want attached to your Opening Day starter and de facto No. 1.
The Twins have plenty of uncertainty in their 2012 rotation, so more than ever they'll be counting on Pavano -- whose 443 innings over the past two years lead all Twins pitchers by more than 100 -- to be that veteran rock. In order to to excel, it is essential that he take matters into his own hands and find a way to start missing a few more bats.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
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7 comments:
Pavano's strike outs dropped off after the 2004 season. 2009 was an exception, his strikeout percentage last year was still higher than a couple of his seasons in New York. Of course, he wasn't a successful pitcher in New York either.
The big change for Pavano, statistically, is that he is getting a lot more ground balls. The last two years his ground ball percentages have been the highest of his career. I assume as a result, he is getting a lot more double plays than he used to. It also probably means he will be helped a lot by better infield defense.
Pavano "eats innings" by being efficient with his pitches. He faced a career high 955 batters last year. That was the 6th most in major league baseball. He was 15th in innings pitched.
I am not sure his strike out rate is going to matter much. Pavano is likely going to give the Twins a lot of innings, but he is going to give up runs and hits. His career batting average on balls in play is very high for a successful major league pitcher. Last year's number, .308, was basically the same as his career .305. He's really only the Twins "ace" because no one else has been able to stay healthy and give them innings.
Last season the Twins were the worse in the majors by coverting 69.3% of balls in play to outs. In 2011 they were also towards the bottom, by converting 70.1%. In 2009, they converted 69.9%. I do not think that these numbers are significantly different. In 2011 the Twins' pitchers had a team total of 940 K (good for 14th in the AL), in 2010 they had 1048 K (10th.) So the pitchers put the ball in play 10% more in 2011 than they did in 2010. And that 10% is much more of a factor than the 1% difference in the defensive efficiency.
"So the pitchers put the ball in play 10% more in 2011 than they did in 2010."
That doesn't follow. The Twins pitchers put the ball in ball 73% of the time in both 2010 and 2011. There was no change. Their BABIP in 2011 was .310 and in 2010 it was .302.
In 2010, Twins pitchers walked batters 6.3% of the time. In 2011, it was 7.7%. That increase meant they walked 383 batters in 2010 and 480 in 2011.
The problem was not what happened when the Twins pitchers "pitched to contact", its what happened when they didn't.
TO HAVE PAVANO AS OPENING DAY #1 MAN -I'M SORRY, THAT IS JUST SAD. NO OFFENSE TO CARL, HE'S DONE PRETTY WELL FOR US OVERALL, BUT THE TWINS DEFINITELY ARE STARTING TO SHAPE UP LIKE THE CHARLESTOWN CHIEFS. A BUNCH OF UNWANTED MISFITS, THAT FORGET WHERE THEY ARE ON ANY GIVEN DAY. (IE: CASILLA) JUST WATCH, WITHIN 5 YEARS THE TWINS WILL HAVE MADE ENOUGH BAD MOVES AND GIVEN AWAY THE FARM, THEY WILL BE FORCED TO SELL MAUER TO PAY FOR THE TEAMS BUS TICKETS FOR ROAD GAMES!!!
"So the pitchers put the ball in play 10% more in 2011 than they did in 2010."
"That doesn't follow."
Sure it does, if those stats are on. The total # of outs in a 162-game season is fairly consistent. So if they got 100 less strikeouts in 2011 compared to 2010, that's 100 more "balls in play outs" they needed to get, which takes approximately 130 ground balls to get given a .300 BABIP. So yes, they were putting more balls in play, which was part of the problem given the awful defense.
An extra 100 walks was definitely part of the problem as well.
Pitch to contact needs a good defense. And it needs to be true - a pitch to contact pitcher who walks a bunch of guys is no more than a really crappy pitcher.
The Twins faced 6106 batters in 2010 and 6210 in 2011, while putting the ball in play 73% of the time both years. That means they put the ball in play 4457 in 2010 and 4533 times in 2011, an increase of 76 balls in play, about 1.7%. The percentage of balls in play was probably rounded, but those numbers are going to be pretty close.
Pavano eats innings. Gardy eats bacon and lard sarnies. Pavano will go 8-19 this season. Gardy will weigh 331 come September.
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