The Twins made their signing of Josh Willingham official yesterday, finalizing a three-year, $21 million deal with the veteran outfielder.
The move rules out a return to Minnesota for long-time franchise staple Michael Cuddyer, who'd been viewed as an alternative option to fill the same need.
Or does it?
While the Twins' interest in Willingham and Cuddyer had largely been framed as an either/or scenario over the first couple months of the offseason, there's been growing speculation that the club may consider bringing Cuddyer back even with Willingham locked in.
This strikes me as bizarre. It's not hard to see the appeal in a lineup that includes both bats, but the Twins are working with limited resources -- Terry Ryan would have to stretch the budget past ownership's desired target of $100 million to bring Cuddyer back -- and they haven't yet begun to address their flimsy pitching corps.
In fact, all the team has really done so far is subtract from a staff that finished second-to-last in the majors in ERA. It's tough to see how signing Cuddyer would leave much flexibility to add anything beyond the types of marginal minor-league arms they've already brought into the mix.
Not only would signing Cuddyer show a lopsided emphasis on offense versus pitching, it would also signal that the front office is focusing far too much on the present versus the future. It's great that Ryan and Co. are intent on righting the ship in short order, but they need to be rebuilding with an eye toward the organization's long-term health as well. Forfeiting a pair of high draft picks while committing $45 million to a pair of 33-year-old corner outfielders seems extremely short-sighted.
There's an inherent risk in making multi-year commitments to players that are aging into their mid-30s. Fortunately, that risk is mitigated in Willingham's case because $7 million annually is very reasonable for a player of his pedigree, which is why this deal has to be looked at as a slam dunk success for the front office.
By signing Cuddyer in addition to Willingham though, the Twins would be doubling their risk. Having both outfielders aboard would certainly strengthen the lineup in the short term, but the long-term ramifications are troubling and if the front office is willing to cough up an additional $24 million for a Cuddyer contract, it sure seems like that money could be put to better use on pitching.
[UPDATE: Such fears can be put to rest. Cuddyer signed a three-year, $31.5 million contract with the Rockies today.]
Friday, December 16, 2011
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21 comments:
I agree, but I think you're overlooking a few things. Bringing back Cuddyer and signing Willingham only proves one thing...another outfielder becomes expendable. This means Denard Span, Ben Revere (though I doubt it), Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, Oswaldo Arcia could be made available through trade. Sounds like an effective way to improve the pitching staff to me, but I think the best route is to offer a contract to Hisashi Iwakuma and move Brian Duensing to the bullpen.
Typo in first sentence of paragraph 6.
I agree, but I think you're overlooking a few things. Bringing back Cuddyer and signing Willingham only proves one thing...another outfielder becomes expendable. This means Denard Span, Ben Revere (though I doubt it), Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, or Oswaldo Arcia could be made available through trade. Sounds like an effective way to improve the pitching staff to me, but I think the best route is to offer a contract to Hisashi Iwakuma and move Brian Duensing to the bullpen.
Typo in first sentence of paragraph 6.
Nothing else matters if Gardy is allowed to manage the team. With new players he will simply establish new favorites. Anybody with a personality will be looked upon as suspect (or as a rebel) and those players not seriously hurt will not be expected to play through pain (not talking about the concussion sufferers, obviously). Bet 5 bucks right now that Toby makes the squad coming out of spring training. The Fat Man needs to go (Gardy too!)
That's excellent analysis Anthony, but I still don't see the typo in paragraph six.
Twins'
Twins' is correct (plural possessive). Twin's would be correct only if the team was called the Minnesota Twin
I have an odd thought. I think the Twins have lied about the 100mil figure to help negotiate contracts down. I think they will spend the 100 mil and then surprise everyone with a big(ish) pitcher signing and end up closer to 110 or more.
That way then spend less (than last year) and come out looking like big spenders.
I had something of the same thought as Lars...by floating the $100m figure out there the team could end up cutting payroll from last season while the fanbase actually feels like they stretched payroll.
As for bringing in more offense and "ignoring" pitching, there isn't a lot of pitching out there to acquire. Run differential improvement is the goal. Whether that comes from adding runs or preventing them isn't critical.
I think we're forgetting how awful our offense was last year. Sure, our pitching was bad but we were hitting like the 2010 M's for a while. Improve the offense!
That's not a typo. I'm pretty sure that is the way it's supposed to be. Gardy needs to go.
Apparently it's official. I'm shocked the Twins did the right thing here and didn't overpay for Cuddy. Willingham for Cuddy is a net zero for the 2012 team, but the draft picks are nice, and the '12 Twins aren't going anywhere anyhow. For the purposes of rebuilding, I'd much rather see Benson in RF than Willingham at $7 mil, but hopefully he's not blocked too long.
I still have no clue what the team's short and long term plan is, but at least it's refreshing to see them make the right move - or rather, not make the wrong move, i.e., use their head instead of their heart.
Right move, but sad to see Cuddyer go. A true professional and class act on and off the field. I'll always remember '09 when he took over for Moreau at first and led the team to that furious late-season comeback, culminating with a magical game 163. Great stuff, fun to watch.
I would prefer Cuddyer to Willingham at close to the same salary, he's not worth a 50% premium. Ryan made the correct call here. What's frustrating is that Ryan should not have had to make this call. Had Smith not completely botched the negotiation (like he did everything else), he could have locked Cuddyer up for $8 mil last winter.
I like what Willingham brings offensively, but I haven't seen anything to suggest he's anything more than an average defender. And I don't see how playing an average field out of position does anything to improve us defensively, an area where we were unbearably bad last year.
" Run differential improvement is the goal. Whether that comes from adding runs or preventing them isn't critical."
Obviously the only run differential that matters is that you score one more run than the other team. But the likelihood a team will win the game does not increase at the same rate as increased scoring. The first run scored raises the chances of winning by the most. Each following run raises the chances of winning less than the previous one.
Which means that a balance of preventing and scoring is going to win you more games. And when you are in balance getting better at preventing runs is slighty more important.
I think the Twins missed a bullet with Cuddyer. Kubel is younger and really a different issue. He's probably going to cost less than Willingham and will likely be more productive over the life of a contract.
I think Chief is right on the starting pitching. I doubt a contract to Kubel is going to make much difference in their ability to afford a starter on the open market. They are going to have to take a flyer on a guy who is coming off injuries or a down season. Or deal away some serious talent.
10 mil a year for Cuddyer is a bit steep, getting a similar/slightly better power hitter in Willingham for 3 mil less is a good deal. Cuddyer's versatility is overrated since his infield fielding is subpar at best, his leadership is also overblown. I wouldn't brag about being a leader on a 99 loss team, especially one that had trouble getting players to play through minor injuries...doesn't sound like enough leading going on there. Don't get me wrong Cuddy was a good Twin but certainly not one to overspend on.
Benson is a couple of years away from being a real contributor so Willingham isn't blocking him as much as he's letting Benson mature/improve in the minors.
I'd go after more pitching before handing Kubel a pile of money. There is plenty of depth with Willingham, Revere, Span, Plouffe and even Tosoni, mix in the kids with a couple of vets and shore up the pitching...starter or reliever.
"Benson is a couple of years away "
Tom Kelly's comment on Benson was that "the game was a little fast for him." That is not a good sign, he may be a long way away.
As for outfield depth. The Twins have two major league outfielders. Span and Willingham. The others are all question marks either offensively (Revere, Tosoni) or defensively(Plouffe). While I don't think adding another outfielder is essential, it would certainly be a good thing and Kubel's bat would add quite a bit of depth to the lineup as well.
The current rotation of Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Duensing is the same rotation that the Twins used to closeout the divisional championship season of 2010. The one complaint I heard about the rotation then was that there was not a true number one starter in the bunch (which was and still is true). Whether they were to sign Cuddyer or not, The Twins are not going to fix the number one starter problem this season unless it it somehow happens from talent currently within the organization. Hopefully they can improve the bullpen with the small amount of money they have left to spend.
"The current rotation of Pavano, Baker, Liriano, Blackburn and Duensing is the same rotation that the Twins used to closeout the divisional championship season of 2010."
It's also more recently the same rotation that posted the 2nd worst ERA in the league en route to a 99-loss season.
We need a starter who can allow Duensing to go back to the bullpen. A righty fireballer in the BP wouldn't hurt either. Should be able to get both with the money saved with Cuddy, and maybe even sign Kubel as well as DH. If 4 of 5 starters had good seasons, and somebody could step up to close, this team might not suck too terribly.
""It's also more recently the same rotation that posted the 2nd worst ERA in the league en route to a 99-loss season."
---True, but the abysmal defense played a big role in that as well. Beyond the errors, there were many, many plays that could and should have been made that were not called errors. As a result, innings that we should have gotten out of with either no runs or only one run, snowballed into big innings for the other team, and several additional "earned" runs charged to the pitcher. You can't do that and expect to win. Even the worst big league offenses will make you pay when you give them extra outs.
So the starters were not as good as they were the year before, but I don't think they were as bad as that stat would suggest.
Yeah, I think that team defense played a bigger role in pitcher performance than a lot of people will admit for 2011.
Although, everything I've seen has Duensing pitching from the bullpen- not as a starter. I think that his production as a starter is more easily replaceable than his production as a reliever. I would rather see Duensing pitch from the pen. Of course, even with that, I think the Twins need another starter that works out, keeps Swarzak in the pen for 2012, and picks up another competent bullpen arm to have a chance next season.
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