* The Twins are smoking hot. As horribly as everything went in April and May, June has been a charmed month. The starting pitching has been absolutely phenomenal (the team has allowed zero or one run in five of its past seven), and the offense -- even with disappointing initial returns from Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Joe Mauer -- has been productive, thanks largely to heightened contributions from role players.
The Twins have won seven straight and 14 out of their last 16, yet they still are tied with Kansas City for the fewest wins in the American League. That should tell you something about how brutal those first two months were.
As I said a week ago, a steep uphill climb remains, and the schedule will grow tougher in the coming weeks. But the Twins have at least put themselves in a position where a run at contention seems feasible, and for that fans must be very grateful.
* Mauer returned to the Twins this weekend, and while it was nice to see him play all three games and push Butera/Rivera out of the lineup twice, I'm not going to feel fully confident in him until he stops hitting the ball on the ground constantly.
The underlying issue in Mauer's dreadful start to the season (.235/.289/.265 with one extra-base hit in 38 plate appearances) was a sky-high GB rate. He grounded out multiple times in all three games over the weekend, and his only hit was a bouncer up the middle in his first at-bat on Friday.
Presently, 70 percent of balls put in play by the catcher this year have been grounders. Derek Jeter's 65 percent rate leads all qualifying players.
* The Twins haven't hit for much power this year and that runs through the entire organization. We're approaching the season's halfway point and Trevor Plouffe leads the system in home runs, with 11. Yes, Trevor Plouffe.
Monday, June 20, 2011
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The other disconcerting thing about Mauer is that the only well-hit balls he's getting airborne are right at left fielders who are increasingly shading him way, way left. Not a new development, but he's going to have to adjust to be successful.
There's nothing good about Mauer, or that he pushed Rivera and Butera out of the lineup. 1) Butera and Rivera were actually hitting good at the plate the last couple of weeks, and 2) both play exceptional defense while Mauer plays very little and can't throw out anyone.
I don't know why Plouffe's power is a surprise. His 3 HR/71 PA puts him in a virtual tie with Jim Thome in HR/PA for the team lead at big league level and he has 8 HR in 115 plate appearances at AAA. With 11 HR/186 PA he is well on his way to a 30+ HR season if he plays full time. Now if he could only play shortstop ... or third base.
Defending Butera or Rivera over Mauer in the lineup? I'm in shock. He has thrown out 20% of the runners attempting to steal this year in limited numbers. He is an above average catcher. Obviously he might be the best hitting catcher ever. Despite Butera getting the game winning hit AND hitting better of late, which means he has actually gotten a hit or two still has a 176/208 line. You could get someone in the stands and put up those numbers. If a 176 Average with 208OBP is acceptable then Michael Jordan might try another run at baseball. Rivera is no better.
This hot streak has come against generally weak competition, including the South Siders. While it's been fun to watch, this team is still fundamentally flawed in multiple areas. They'll go only as far as starting pitching can take them unless guys start hitting. Counting on role players to come through night after night is not a way to win a division, even this one.
It is true that nobody in the minors other than Flouffe is putting up much for power numbers. Still, I think the Twins have a number of prospects with major league 30 HR potential. Including the following Hicks, Arcia, Benson, Parmelee, Gonzalez and Rams. There are certainly others.
The question with most of these prospects is whether they will hit for enough average and field well enough to get a chance at the majors. Or get more than a cup of coffee at the majors. The same is true of Plouffe.
The fact that most of these guys haven't put up much for power numbers is related to several things. Young guys for their level, injuries, power suppressing leagues and maybe the way the Twins teach hitting.
I don't think the Twins really lack power in the minors though. The idea that the Twins should start drafting for power seems a little off to me. I think that good hitters with strength will grow into their power in many cases.
I have to say the realization of trevor Plouffe leading the system brought audible and many giggles to me.. More out of basic shock. I think we need to allow Mauer more than 3 games into his comeback before we really start tearing him down AGAIN!!
I really can't believe someone said that Mauer couldn't throw anyone out. I use to work with a guy that was drafted by the twins the same year as Mauer as a Catcher and he talked about Mauer's arm and that he'd never seen a catcher more accurate and quick as Mauer was.
There's nothing good about Mauer? Wow. Let's not overreact to this small sample size- 45 ABs. He's a career .325 hitter... The concern should be raised about the other M on the team.
The recent pitching performance has been an encouraging sign.
With an ample number of home games left, as the team gets healthy, and the hitting "progresses more towards the mean" there is no reason to think that the Twins do not have at least a shot at the division- unthinkable only three weeks ago.
I dont see the starting pitching sustaining this kind of dominance. The bats need to get going to win at a .600 + clip moving forward. Just like most of last year, Mauer seems incapable of driving the ball. This surge reminds me of the white sox 6 week run of dominance last year only to fizzle because they really weren't all that good. They need to play over .500 on this road trip and every other here after. They need to play .700 ball at home. I dont see it happening although nobody dreamed they would be 20 games below .500 either. The biggest thing to take from this is that when your starters are going this deep in games this often you're going to win a lot more than you lose.
"This surge reminds me of the white sox 6 week run of dominance last year only to fizzle because they really weren't all that good."
I guess I think that is the difference. The Twins really are that good. Well maybe not THAT good, 14-2 is a pace for a 140+ wins per year and nobody is that good.
The Twins have a deep rotation and they have been showing they have a lot of depth everywhere else as well. They are winning with most of their bashers on the DL. With Span, Morneau, Kubel and Thome all having the potential to provide a boost when they come back, there is a lot of reason to think the Twins are not going to fade out entirely.
Well, they cant go 140+ wins this year because they have already lost 30+ games lol. But kidding aside, good points TT
ok no offense but TT who in the Twins "deep rotation" really scares anyone?
The Twins have a deep rotation and they have been showing they have a lot of depth everywhere else as well.
They're deep as long as Baker and Liriano continue throwing well and stay off the DL. Remember that both guys have spent lots of time in the ice tub and have been inconsistent throughout their histories as players. At least we know we'll get average 4th-5th starter performances from Pavano and Duensing...
As for this other depth? Do you really think that Tolbert, Hughes and Dinkleman are real solid depth a team can count on all season? I don't. My original point was that the big boppers need to start bopping, or this hot streak will come to a screaching halt against better competition.
I'm not too worried about Mauer hitting once he's healthy and shakes off the rust. He'll be fine. It would be nice to see him find that power stroke, but even if he's mostly a doubles hitter this summer he's still going to add a lot to this offense.
Frankly, I'd rather have Rivera as the backup right now. A few clutch hits isn't enough to make up for Butera being an utter black hole on offense. No power, no patience, no hitting ability at all. Rivera isn't much better, but he is a little better and has a better track record as a hitter and defensively they're close enough. But mostly, I want Butera gone because Gardy will turn to him too often, remembering 1 big hit in a month over the 4-32 stretch that preceded it.
Hopefully, Cuddyer can stay hot as well, while the rest of the hitters (Kubel, Thome, Morneau) get healthy.
I'm really wondering if the June Casilla is what we're going to see the rest of the year. That? would be exciting, but I'm not betting on it.
Rivera isn't much better, but he is a little better and has a better track record as a hitter and defensively they're close enough.
In addition, I've heard that the Twins give Rivera a lot of credit for Liriano's turnaround. He's been behind the plate for each of Frankie's starts since coming off the DL.
Mauer's offense has been off for awhile, this is not a new development. Gardy was right to suggest Mauer play at the AAA level for a bit. He could have worked on his swing/stance/timing whatever is the problem, but there is a problem.
As bad as the first two months of 2011 were, this year's team is in better shape currently than the 2006 team was. Not saying the finish will be the same, of course, but it's interesting to look at.
Mind you, the Detroit Tigers were playing amazing baseball in 2006 until their post-All Star game swoon.
The 2006 Twins didn't close to within 7.5 games of first until August 16.
For those who say Mauer is not a good defensive catcher... he won a gold glove.
are you people on drugs that are questioning Joe Mauer at the plate and has a phenomenol arm behind the plate? I can see there are not too many people who know the game of baseball here. He is the BEST all around catcher in the game...he is coming back from injury idiots!!!THE BEST CATCHER IN THE GAME!!! DON'T WORRY ABOUT JOE MAUER...ASK GARDENHIRE IDIOTS!!!
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