Yet, for some reason, Ron Gardenhire has been hugely reluctant to mess with Young's routine in any way. The manager's decision to use noodle-armed Ben Revere in right field while sticking with Young in left prior to Denard Span's injury flew in the face of sheer logic, but Gardy provided the following rationalization:
"Not to mess with Delmon more than anything else,'' Gardenhire said of his reason for leaving Young in left. "He's got his hands full in left, so we'll keep him working out there and not trying to mess with his mind any more. We're trying to get him hitting. I think if you start switching him in the outfield, he's got something else he's got to worry about. So just leave Delmon alone."OK, so what about using Young at designated hitter, so he can focus completely on hitting and stop sabotaging the team's pitchers?
Nope.
"Delmon's not really too excited about DH-ing," Gardenhire said. "He's been working really hard in the outfield, trying to get better. He feels a lot more comfortable playing, and I respect that."Despite the fact that he's literally been one of the worst players in all of baseball this year, Young continues to not only start every day, but hit fifth in the lineup and dictate where he plays in the field.
If Young had a long track record of success, or was showing gradual improvement, or even if he was considered a staple in the clubhouse, I might understand the manager's tact. None of these things are true. Why is he being coddled while Trevor Plouffe is being demoted after making bad throws and Danny Valencia is being benched for multiple games when his bat goes cold?
This doesn't qualify as a season-opening slump anymore. We're coming up on the halfway point in the season and Young's OPS continues to hover around .500, which is staggeringly bad for a plodding corner outfielder.
Gardenhire needs to start worrying less about disrupting the rhythm of a player who is currently amidst the worst slump of his entire career, and more about the overall well-being of this Twins team, which is trying desperately to scrape its way back into contention.
If Young has so much on his mind, perhaps some time off from playing (or, as I've suggested, a change of scenery) would be the best course of action. Leaving Delmon alone has done a lot more harm than good.
49 comments:
Gardy seems to be saying that Delmon is just too dumb to adjust to playing a new position (which must make Repko a frigging genius!) If this is indeed true, tradehimtradehimtradehimtradehim NOW! Delmon for Carlos Gomez sounds good to me. Whatever Carlos isn't, he is a better hitter than Delmon, a better arm, and an uber-superior fielder. Plus, he is about 4x as fast. Imagine an outfield of Revere/Span/Gomez. Watch them run!
This is more on Gardy than anything else. That Dinkleman was DH'ing on Tuesday instead of Young or Morneau is managerial malfeasance and may have cost the Twins a win. Repko should have been in center, Revere in left and some combination of Young/Cuddy/Morneau in RF/1B/DH.
It's Gardy's job to light a fire under Young's rear end. I strongly fear that Young is going to be gone from the Twins for nothing in return (oh no, NOT Go-Go!), only to see DY have a David Ortiz-like career somewhere else.
As far as the bigger picture goes, it still rests with Gardy cracking the whip. Shaking up all of these slumbering giants with a loss of PT (not just Young) and being publicly called out, if necessary, should have started at least a month ago. It sure worked with Casilla!
Here are some stats from today's game that make a strong point:
$31 Million Dollar Salary- 1/12 (Cuddy, Morneau, Young)
$3.1 Million Dollar Salary- 10/26 (the other 6 "minimum wage" guys in the starting lineup)
That's 10 Times the production at 1/10th of the salary and it isn't just today. Ridiculous.
Delmon's been a dumpster fire almost since day 1 of that trade. Even his best year in 2010 was only marginally good for a left fielder when you consider his poor OBP and terrible defense. I will never understand how/why Gardy sticks with certain guys beyond all reason. It drives me nuts! At least Punto played defense and played hard. I think if you could get a bag of balls and a few bats for him you should do it. What a terrible trade!!!
Maybe--and I have not liked Delmon Young since his minor league hissy fit, culminating in throwing a bat at an umpire, resulted in his suspension for 50 games--he needs to visit an eye doctor. I am in awe of his strikeouts--it looks like he's closing his eyes up there. Even his extra base hits this year--all six of them--have been mostly ducksnorts or dribblers for doubles (with his one homerun being an exception).
If he doesn't improve is he a non-tender possibility at the end of the season? If so, can the Twins afford to keep running him out there, rather than test-driving potential replacements?
My list of guys to move before the trading deadline:
1. D. Young - he's still a young guy but not sure how much value he has.
2. Pavano
3. Slowey
4. Cuddyer
5. Capps - he can't close, but maybe he could be a solid set up guy.
I know there are others but I think these guys would have value to a team in the pennant race.
This is further proof the inmates are running the asylum on the Twins. Most guys can play any position they want, rest when they want, take 2 months off because their legs are sore, etc. Unless of course you're a young player or an AAA player with no business in the majors, then you better hit .300 with no errors or else you're in Gardy's Permanent Doghouse.
Does anyone still believe Gardy has control over this club? That he is "managing" his team?
I just don't understand the logic either. When a guy is struggling that much it can be good for him to switch things up. Change things and potentially get out of a funk.
A lot of times when a baseball player is in a major batting slump you here people say that they are over thinking or trying to hard. Having Delmon think about other things might be a good idea, let his swing come naturally.
There is only one logical explanation for such coddling of a player with such an unproductive, unresponsive player: that they are puffing him up for a trade. The last thing they need when he is already so close to totally useless is for him to torpedo a possible trade with a tirade. If they think giving him consistent playing time in his comfort zone is the best way to make him look presentable, than go ahead. Think of it as fattening a cow up before it's weighed.
Of course, just because that's the only logical reason doesn't mean it's the actual reason. He might just be one of Gardy's guys.
Good article. If only Delmon was the only problem. . .
Sooner or later a lot of folks are going to start questioning Ron Gardenhire. The buck stops with him. He seems to be going through a streak of bad decisions. Has he lost his touch? Was he just lucky before? Doesn't seem very sharp to me. I know it is easy playing the armchair manager, but with the Twins doing so poorly, it is hard not to question the field management.
While I agree that Delmon is a sub-standard fielder, how do you rationalize his respectable ZR of 10 and UZR of 3.4?
young player or an AAA player with no business in the majors, then you better hit .300 with no errors or else you're in Gardy's Permanent Doghouse.
Yeah, I just don't get this, either. At this point in the year, the "big boys" should be treated the same as the little guys. Instead, the little guys are called out publicly while the big guys get the "aww shucks" treatment.
Baffling.
While I agree that Delmon is a sub-standard fielder, how do you rationalize his respectable ZR of 10 and UZR of 3.4?
Small sample.
If he doesn't improve is he a non-tender possibility at the end of the season? If so, can the Twins afford to keep running him out there, rather than test-driving potential replacements?
I can't imagine him being brought back next year at a price of $5M+, even if he improves in the second half.
The Twins seem content to keep trotting him out there with the hope that he can salvage some value, but really, how much will the perception of other teams change even if he starts hitting? They all know about the proneness to horrible slumps, the bad attitude and the abysmal defense.
I think it's time for the Twins to cut their losses.
Regarding calling out young guys and letting the "veterans" do as they please, it is not a fair system, I would say it is not the best way to get the most out of these young players, but it is a good way to cover your back. None of the smaller guys could start a rebellion in the club house, they have to suck it up (try to have a career if they label you a problem kid). But the big guys can make the life of a manager very difficult, and Gardy knows that. Not fair by any means, but managers are no stupid.
While I agree that Delmon is a sub-standard fielder, how do you rationalize his respectable ZR of 10 and UZR of 3.4?
Small sample.
Couldn't you make the same argument about his hitting then too?
He's hit in the same amount of games he's played defense in...
I'm with Ed (and you Nick), what is up with Gardenhire handling his players with kid-gloves? Eff-ing rattle their cages a bit, I mean come on, this team is 61 games into a dismal season and it seems like no one wants to light a fire. Who cares if Delmon doesn't like playing DH, someone tell him that he's garbage in the field and it's either DH or nothing at all...a good manager does what's best for the team, not what will please an individual player.
"While I agree that Delmon is a sub-standard fielder, how do you rationalize his respectable ZR of 10 and UZR of 3.4?
Small sample."
What? So, you're saying he's closing his eyes and the ball is falling in his glove? It doesn't work that way. All the defensive metrics agree that he has been much better (average to above average). Small sample is a way of saying this probably won't continue, but not that he hasn't played well. If he was hitting .350/.385/.475, would you say he hasn't hit well? No, you say he has hit well, but you probably wouldn't expect it to continue because of the small sample. But that isn't what you're saying with defense. In fact, you say he's been costing us runs and isn't even trying out there, which the metrics say isn't true at all. So, either admit that your memory has been selective about his defense this year or tell us to stop believing the defensive metrics at all.
So, let's say that the Twins cut their losses. At this point, they are not getting anything resembling a major league ball player in the trade, so who is the next RH slugger in our system to get a chance with the big boys? As far as I'm concerned, Plouffe has been our best RH hitter this year (power-wise) and he can't even stay up. Is Benson going to get a chance? I know that he shouldn't be rushed (and I thought he may be battling injuries.... can't recall) but who else is there? I hate to be a broken record, but wow.... Billy really hurt this club in some amazingly bad trades. Ramos would easily be our best RH bat, by the way....
So, either admit that your memory has been selective about his defense this year or tell us to stop believing the defensive metrics at all.
Don't believe the defensive metrics when we're talking about less than half a season's worth of data.
Batting stats give you an exact picture of a player's performance (he's had this many hits, reached base this many times, has this many XBH's, etc.). Defensive stats are much more inexact and while they generally paint an accurate picture in the long run it's not worth paying much attention to them in a 50-game sample, especially when the results represent a drastic change from his track record (look at Young's UZR numbers over the past three seasons and tell me if you think he's actually been noticeably better this year).
Sure, it may be that Young has caught most of the balls hit in his zone. But he's made very few out-of-zone plays and UZR doesn't really account for when he fails to reach over and pick up a ball off the ground, or when he dogs it after a ball he misses.
People, people I realize I'm much more an optymist than most of you. but to suggest you'd rather have Nick Punto on this team instead of Delmon who had over 100 RBI last year and was a KEY reason we even won the division is absurd. Did he make an error that cost us a game the other day? yes. How many other players on this team have made costly base running errors? Kubel, Valencia, Span to name a few. Numerous problems throughout the first 2 months of the season. Now, when they seem to be putting things together win-wise with a mashed together lineup and the starters are finally coming around to some consistency you all want to blame Delmon. His defense has been bad through his career no doubt. I notice numerous catches he HAS made this year that last year he would not have. Yes he needs to get more consistent. DO NOT FORGET when this season started he was still the YOUNGEST YES YOUNGEST player on this team. You people want to trade him 2 years before he hits his prime and end up losing out on another player like they did with David Ortiz(no I'm not saying he will BE at Otiz' level) But 100 RBI potential does not come round as often as you'd like.. The guy this team should be trading is Michael Cuddyer who routinely comes up in clutch situations late in games striking out. Yes he's a nice guy but this team needs some nasty on it. He should be odd man out.
Oh and Carlos Gomes can run and catch but he absolutely has no bat whatsoever. forget him. I'll take Delmon who's batting .375 with runners in scoring position even with his current bad overall batting. Put him up to bat with a runner ion 2nd or 3rd Delmon gets the job done. NUFF SAID!!!
I'm all for jettisoning Delmon at the earliest available opportunity.
But what kind of value can he possibly have right now? And he's not going to get any more valuable sitting on the bench.
Playing him regularly isn't a great option, but it might be the best of a bunch of bad options.
Nick, been reading your blog for a long time. I've decided (now that I'm getting out of the military)that I have the time to start one. I wrote today about another player the Twins should be looking to move....
http://homerhankyjake.blog.com/
If the defensive metrics in any way suggest Delmon Young is anything other than an extremely over all poor outfielder, then defensive metrics (zr and uzr) are a complete fraud. Period.
"Why is he being coddled while Trevor Plouffe is being demoted after making bad throws and Danny Valencia is being benched for multiple games when his bat goes cold?"
Believe me I dislike Delmon as much as anybody but the VERY obvious answer to this question is that he was a #1 OVERALL draft pick! And as a previous commenter mentioned he is still very young. Plouffe and Valencia are older with way less (zero?) upside so they are perfect punching bag material.
I just think Gardy is has decided what the heck and is playing along with Delmon's head games. If nothing else to get it thru to the guy that he doesn't have the 2008/2009 excuse where he was being jerked in and out of the lineup, etc. If the Twins were otherwise playing well, my guess is that Gardy would not be doing this. DY has no trade value and telling him to eff off does no good, satisfying as it would be!
Delmon is admittedly a slow starter. He doesn't really get it going until mid-August. Can't anyone just let him be so he can get his head together!! He'll be fine
Of course, just because that's the only logical reason doesn't mean it's the actual reason
One other logical reason for continuing to play Delmon might be that the Twins believe 2600 previous big league PAs are a better gauge of what Delmon is likely to do in the future than 2 months and 160 PAs this year.
Another logical reason might be, what have the better options been?
Defensive stats are much more inexact and while they generally paint an accurate picture in the long run it's not worth paying much attention to them in a 50-game sample, especially when the results represent a drastic change from his track record
Do you have any evidence--any evidence whatsoever--that the 'inexact' defensive metrics are any more reliable in large doses than is small? Anything?
The proponants of UZR seem to me to be saying "small piles of crap aren't trustworthy, but when you pile up enough small piles of crap, the large pile of crap is suddenly gospel."
Here lies the problem with Gardenhire and why he will NEVER be a truly great manager. He is a players manager thru and thru. Meaning he allows the players to manage him. Gardenhire is afraid of hurting a players feelings. Feelings do not matter in million dollar operations....period. Gardenhire should absolutely make Young feel uncomfortable, maybe then he will react. Nathan should have NEVER started the season with the big club...Gardy's take...he has earned it with his hard work. Bull...he wasn't ready to pitch then and not now. He has turned the Minnesota Twins into the softest team in baseball. You can see what he is going to do two innings before he does it. He has no guts...period. Manages strictly by what the numbers tell him. Any one of us could do the same thing. He is not a manager, he merely guides the team...and barely that. Sorry for the rant, but it is sad to watch the team of whimps he puts out there and allows.....The Dodgers would have never won the series....because Gardy would have been too afraid to bat Gibson and the Twins would have never won the 91 series because Morris was past his pitch count. One last thing....To Gardenhire...if you want to be their friends, go back to coaching third...if you want to win the series...find a backbone.
So a bit off topic...
But after Hughes leadoff double last night - was anyone else wondering.
1) WTF? Why isn't the bunt on to bring the infield and outfield in for tolbert?
2) Did Dinks miss the bunt sign twice?
3) did Gardy really think Dinks odds of pulling a grounder were higher than excecuting a sac bunt?
"Twins would have never won the 91 series because Morris was past his pitch count."
This is a pretty dumb argument. The game has changed since 91, no one cared about pitch count back then. Now every team in baseball uses pitch counts. There are a few pitchers that are exceptions and have higher pitch counts, Verlander being a good example. The Tigers still use a pitch count with him, it's just at 115-120 instead of at 100.
Gosh Darnit my legs hurt
The proponants of UZR seem to me to be saying "small piles of crap aren't trustworthy, but when you pile up enough small piles of crap, the large pile of crap is suddenly gospel."
The problem with your analogy is that the "piles of crap" would be completely random. Small samples of UZR data are not random, they're just prone to inaccuracy because -- as you know -- the way they chart and track the information is far from perfect.
It's a basic statistical principle, though, that over time the inaccuracies will be filtered out and the larger trends will show through. If you don't buy it, you don't buy it. I find that in large samples the data confirms suspicions about many players, including Young, who has been far below average in UZR over the past three years.
Also, I've never said UZR is "gospel." It's just better than anything else we're able to measure defense with at present.
Thank you, Nick! I've been saying for Day 1 that Delmon Young was a RIGHT fielder. People unfamiliar with his time in Tampa Bay tend to not know this. People forget that in 2008, we had lost Torii and needed a CF'er. Span was sent to the minors in lieu of GoGomez and Craig Monroe. Some people wondered if Delmon could even play CENTER! Delmon ended up in left for no reason other than Cuddyer being there. When Cuddyer got hurt, Gardy called up Span, but for reasons I will never understand, he left Delmon in left and put Span in right. Gardy has never revisited this backwards logic b/c this team panders to "character" guys like Cuddyer and Mauer. Delmon would be considered an "average" OF'er with a great arm if he were in RF where he belongs. He should be fighting for time in RF or on the bench.
"While I agree that Delmon is a sub-standard fielder, how do you rationalize his respectable ZR of 10 and UZR of 3.4?
Small sample."
Your entire analysis is based on that "small sample".
The fact is left field is second only to catcher in lost productivity from last year. And most of that is from Delmon Young's decline, just as most of the decline at first base is a result of Justin Morneau's problems.
But assuming you want to get back in the pennant race, getting Young back to where he was last year would be a good way to start. I don't think Gardy has entirely given up on the season and I don't think he should. Given that, sending Young out there every day just makes sense.
SHOULD HAVE traded him after his 100+ RBI season.
One would think D Young would NEED something in his routine changed- even if it is only his breakfast!
Fire Gardy! Fire Gardy! FIRE HIM.
The only thing Gardy has been good for this year is getting tossed from games- he certainly can't bring in the right relief pitcher (as evidenced by him using 4 pitchers yesterday in the 8th).
Also, I've never said UZR is "gospel." It's just better than anything else we're able to measure defense with at present.
That's the thing, Nick. I don't see how anybody could know that. What actual evidence does anybody have that UZR measures ANYthing?
"I find that in large samples the data confirms suspicions about many players"
Right, its very accurate when it confirms your suspicions and crap when it doesn't. That seems to be a universal principal for evaluating information.
I think this season we're seeing one of the problems with Gardenhire Theory of Managing. He'll mess with players who don't fall in line with his way of thinking or approach to the game, but won't look cross-wise at guys who do, regardless of performance. Delmon might not be a Gardy favorite, but wanting to play the field and stay at his position blah blah blah is exactly the kind of thinking Gardy likes...so he gets to play. Guy who's a little mouthy like Valencia...he'll get yanked.
But generally, Gardy wants to put guys into a routine and not eff with them thereafter, which leads to dumb thinking, like Delmon not DHing or just plugging Revere into the hole in the OF. This last one drives me crazy: Revere should be playing CF if he's in the lineup, & Span should slide to LF and either Cuddyer/Young/Kubel should be in RF. It's really not that complex, but since it would violate the Gardy Rule of not upsetting the role of a regular, revere's horrible arm ended up in LF until Span's head went wonky.
I also think Gardy's disdain of stats comes into play with guys like Delmon or Butera. He'll remember the HR or the well-hit ball and forget about the 17 weak ABs inbetween.
Right, its very accurate when it confirms your suspicions and crap when it doesn't. That seems to be a universal principal for evaluating information.
If I had watched Delmon Young bumble around in the outfield for the last three years and his UZR data over that period consistently said he was anything other than atrocious, I'd either have to rethink my evaluation of Young's defense or the metric itself.
Not the case. Over the past three years, he has consistently ranked as one of the worst in the league by UZR. Data that doesn't conform to that trend in 40 freaking games means nothing to me. I don't understand why you guys are having a hard time grasping this.
Never in this blog's history have I ever said, "This guy has a hugely negative UZR score over the course of his career but I still think he's a great defender," nor vice versa. While it might be imperfect, UZR tends to get it right in the long haul.
Your entire analysis is based on that "small sample".
Not really. Young has been a sub par player in three of four seasons with the Twins now, and here at age 25 after a breakout season he's been worse than ever. He was likely to be gone after this year anyway so I don't see much incentive to keep him around.
Nick,
The most obvious answer here is trade Delmon Young for anything you can get or release him. The problem is neither one will happen because it would mean GM Bill Smith would have to admit he made a major mistake trading for him.
Manager Ron Gardenhire was asked on his Sunday morning talk show why he did not DH Young vs LH pitchers and DH Jim Thome vs RH pitchers. His response was "He does not like to DH and wants to play the outfield. We don't want to upset Delmon." This statement tells you everything you need to know about our coaching staff. The players run the clubhouse and Gardy only is willing to bash the rookies and not the veterans. The bottom line is he is afraid to call out somebody like Delmon. This is a huge problem. However, once again this is GM Bill Smith's mess because he traded for this cancer. Just cut him already!!
At least Delmon is playing ~ Mauer isn't.
Hey, if you want to shop Delmon around then he's gotta play and improve. With Kubel, Thome, Mauer still on the DL, Delmon needs to play. And with Justin needing to DH right now, where will Delmon play?
It's a flukier year than most.
" Data that doesn't conform to that trend in 40 freaking games means nothing to me. I don't understand why you guys are having a hard time grasping this."
I get it now. UZR measures defensive ability, not actual performance. What I have a hard time grasping is how anyone can believe something that silly.
"Young has been a sub par player in three of four seasons with the Twins now, and here at age 25 after a breakout season he's been worse than ever. "
Those seasons all existed at the start of this season. Then your evaluation was that there was no reason Delmon shouldn't build on that. You have changed your mind based on 160 plate appearances sandwhiched around a trip to the DL.
Nick you are a real dick. He was the Twins MVP last year and has been playing with a rib injury. You are a total imbecile. Off years happen. He is a stud, number 1 overall draft pick and when he gets going can carry a team. Go back to your wiffle ball league and quit boring us with your candyass rants.
Nick you are a real dick. He was the Twins MVP last year and has been playing with a rib injury. You are a total imbecile. Off years happen. He is a stud, number 1 overall draft pick and when he gets going can carry a team. Go back to your wiffle ball league and quit boring us with your candyass rants.
Ahh, the beauty of free speech. Of course, that also entitles you with the right to read a different blog, but back to the Twins...
While we're on the probability and statistics subjects of sample size and regressions to the mean, the Twins have won 8 of their last 10 and Casilla is batting something like .325 the last three or so weeks. Will either of those early season enigmas be sustainable?
Remember, stats can be made to look like almost anything you want, particularly if data collection is subjective (UZR). If you actually WATCH Delmon flail about in LF, there is no freakin way you can make the claim that he's "above average."
" Will either of those early season enigmas be sustainable?"
No more likely than Casilla hitting the way he did in April. His totals for this year are now almost identical to his numbers last year.
" If you actually WATCH Delmon flail about in LF"
That depends on who is watching. You can hear the subjective judgments in the comments here about Delmon. A guy who looks like he's "loafing" and gets to the ball is still better than a guy who goes full out but doesn't.
Unfortunately many fans are going to think the guy who makes a diving catch is a better fielder than the guy who gets to that ball in plenty of time without showing any hustle.
Here's another way of looking at DY's defense. If you're ahead by 1 run in the 9th inning, do you want him plaing LF? I know I don't. He's not reliable at all. I think after 4+ seasons of playing the easiest defensive position and showing no improvement, we have to conclude, He is who we thought he was.
Nick, Delmon Young is thousands of time better at his job than you are at yours.
Reality check
I really can't believe you're still bashing on Delmon. He's 3rd ont he AL metrics. You can't possibly say THIS SEASON he is playing worse defensively!
That's just absurd. You're interpretation that he is "bumbling around" out there is completely thwarted by statistics for this year.
This doesn't mean he's a great fielder going FORWARD, but looking at the first 60 games, he's ranked top 3 in the AL. Very respectable compared to his past performances.
Will he regress? If he hasn't improved, yes, the numbers say he should return to what he was in the previous 3 years.
But if we believe Delmon and Gardy that he has improved, we could expect to see the UZR and ZR stay about the same.
Exactly the same story with his hitting, but opposite... Maybe he's regressed, but his career numbers say he will improve. If he really has regressed, like Nick has said, then we should see his numbers stay around the same.
Now, I personally would prefer to believe that his hitting is in a slump and his fielding has improved. His potential says he should be an above average defender and an above average hitter, so you shouldn't be shocked if he does have above average UZR and OPS at the end of this year.
Trade (for) Delmon Young!
Since it seems that most Twins fans would like to see Delmon Young traded, let's take a look at the type of team that would be interested in a player like Delmon. First off, this year's contending teams wouldn't be interested in a work in progress like Delmon. Only teams looking toward next year and beyond would consider taking a chance on him. Second, Delmon is at a "low" right now - perfect for teams looking to buy low. (Especially buying low on a very young guy with full season of near-MVP caliber numbers just one year removed) And third, a team looking for a right handed bat to stick in the middle of their heavily left-handed lineup might be interested in a guy like Delmon. If only there was a non-contending team out there, looking for a young right handed bat with huge upside at a low price. Hmmm, I think the Twins might fit that mold.
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