Perkins is nasty.
That's not a critique of my favorite late-night breakfast haunt, it's a commentary on the performance of Twins' reliever Glen Perkins, whose emergence as a reliable setup man has stood out as one of the team's few bright spots this year.
I certainly didn't see it coming. Entering this season, Perkins had a 4.81 career ERA and 1.44 WHIP -- not the kind of numbers that scream "late-inning relief." Over the past three years, he had allowed 332 hits in 269 innings.
The 2010 season was a tumultuous one for Perkins, who toiled his way to a 4-9 record and 5.81 ERA in Rochester. He didn't fare any better during his time in Minnesota, posting a 5.82 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 21 2/3 big-league innings.
Yet, the Twins' coaching staff saw something they liked in the southpaw while he worked out of the bullpen as a September call-up, enough so that they tendered him a contract and essentially guaranteed him a spot in this year's renovated relief corps.
Perkins jumped out to a fast, yet unsustainable, start for the Twins. Over his first nine appearances, he allowed no runs on five hits over nine frames but struck out only three of the 31 batters he faced. The lefty's success in spite of an abysmal 10-percent K-rate came on the wings of a .192 BABIP, and even if your name's Mariano Rivera you don't sustain a sub-.200 BABIP.
Perkins' luck was bound to catch up with him, and it has. In 10 appearances since, he has a .400 BABIP. Yet he has continued to excel, with a 1.42 ERA and .615 opponents' OPS during that span, thanks to a huge spike in punch-outs. In those 10 appearances, Perkins has fanned 18 of 50 hitters. That's more than one out of every three.
Perkins, a former first-round pick, was considered a top prospect while coming up through the minors but it's sometimes been hard to tell while watching him work out of the major-league rotation. As a starter, he's battled injuries and mostly survived as a left-handed junk-baller. But Perkins seems to have found a home in the bullpen, where his fastball has elevated to the mid-90s and his confidence continues to grow.
The success has prompted some Twins fans to wonder whether a return to the rotation might be in order, but make no mistake: Perkins is right where he needs to be. The Twins deserve credit for figuring that out, even if it it took a few years to do so.
11 comments:
Perkins is the only guy on the Twins that has completely exceeded expectations this season. I don't think anybody had that in their preseason predictions.
"The success has prompted some Twins fans to wonder whether a return to the rotation might be in order, but make no mistake: Perkins is right where he needs to be."
Agree. He's seem to really found his spot. Some guys are just made to be relievers and some are made to be starters. Moving Perkins out of this role now would be idiotic.
Not for this year, but if he keeps this up all year long, I wonder if he could be the closer next year.
Citing BABIP over 9 and 10 inning spans... nice.
Citing BABIP over 9 and 10 inning spans... nice.
The point is that he wasn't going to keep succeeding while allowing contact at such a high rate. He's now succeeding by not allowing contact -- which is a recipe for sustained results.
"The point is that he wasn't going to keep succeeding while allowing contact at such a high rate. He's now succeeding by not allowing contact -- which is a recipe for sustained results."
The point is he did succeed. It doesn't really matter very often how you get hitters out, whether it is a pop fly, a weak ground ball or they miss a third strike. Perkins performance so far demonstrates that.
The point is he did succeed. It doesn't really matter very often how you get hitters out, whether it is a pop fly, a weak ground ball or they miss a third strike. Perkins performance so far demonstrates that.
If he would have continued to strike out only one of every 10 batters he wouldn't be succeeding. Eventually a higher percentage of balls put in play were going to start falling in, and they did.
"If he would have continued to strike out only one of every 10 batters he wouldn't be succeeding. "
He wouldn't be succeeding if he gives up hits on BIP at a .400 rate either.
Oh, wait a minute. He has succeeded doing both those things at different times, hasn't he? What his results really show is that it doesn't matter much how you get hitters out, as long as you get them out.
The strategy of "get more strikeouts and limit walks" is a more reliable indicator of future success than "hope that batters continue to hit balls where they can be easily fielded." That's because things like strikeouts and walks are skills that the pitcher can control. So, yes, it does matter how outs are recorded when evaluating pitchers.
The point is that lately, Perkins has been demonstrating that there's reason to believe he can maintain success, even if his BABIP increases. Before he started getting more whiffs, that wasn't the case.
Nick - I only glanced over your post, but it should be said (if it wasn't) that Perkins is the ONLY quality arm in the bullpen this year (thus far). Capps is not the option (giving up the Grand Slam) at the end...
Anyone else tired of "oblique" injuries? Do these guys stretch before games?
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