Yesterday marked the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to pending free agents in order to ensure draft pick compensation should those players sign elsewhere. Six departing Twins qualified as Type A or Type B free agents, and the team elected to offer arbitration to three of them: Carl Pavano, Orlando Hudson and Jesse Crain. That means that Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch will officially be shopping their services in free agency.
It's tough to assess these moves without knowing which players will accept and how much the Twins plan on expanding payroll next year, but these are probably the very three candidates I would have extended arbitration offers to. Pavano is a Type A, Hudson and Crain Type B's, so the Twins stand to pick up a number of draft picks should all decline and sign elsewhere.
Of course, there's risk involved here. Should all three accept, the Twins would be committed to spending close to $20 million on them next year and would be left with almost no financial flexibility for the remainder of the offseason, barring another huge spike in payroll. That could mean the same team as last year, except with Alexi Casilla starting at short and cheaper options replacing Guerrier, Rauch, Fuentes and Thome.
Personally, I think it's a given that Pavano will decline. He's about to turn 35 and this represents his last chance to cash in with a multi-year deal. He probably won't make as much annually in such a contract as he would through arbitration, especially since he'll cost the team signing him a draft pick, but he knows his age and injury history as well as anyone so I have to think he'd like to avoid a one-year deal if he can. The right-hander has already reportedly drawn interest from several teams.
The other two are trickier calls.
Crain could look at the unusually deep free agent market and accept a one-year contract, hoping to put together another strong season and stand out as one of the top options next winter. That would result in a significant bump from his $2 million salary from 2010, but even at twice that price he's not a terrible investment. He was their best reliever this past season.
However, Crain has mentioned that he'd like to pursue a closing role next year, so there's also a good chance he declines and tries his luck in free agency. His age (29), combined with his 3.04 ERA and career-high strikeout rate, would make him an attractive option for clubs looking to strengthen their bullpens, and the contract former Rays setup man Joaquin Benoit got from the Tigers (three years, $16.5 million) could have Crain licking his chops.
Hudson would indisputably be the top free agent second baseman on the market, so it seems certain he'd be able to fetch a multi-year deal. Then again, it seemed certain he'd be able to get a multi-year deal last offseason, and the one before. For whatever reason, the league seems to have some aversion to him. He could accept the Twins' offer, jaded with free agency.
That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. Even though he battled a number of injuries and his numbers dropped off late in the year, Hudson was a valuable piece for the Twins, providing competent offense in the two-hole while playing excellent defense. However, if the Twins can only afford one of Hudson and J.J. Hardy -- and that seems to be the case, since they've suggested that Casilla will be starting somewhere in 2011 -- it should be Hardy returning. Both have had a hard time staying healthy, but Hardy is four years younger and stands out more among peers at his position. He's a more valuable player.
But I don't think Hudson is going to accept arbitration, and I don't think the Twins would have extended the offer if they felt he would. Joe Christensen blogged recently on the second baseman, noting that "the writing is on the wall ... It looks like he'll be playing for his fourth team in four years in 2011."
The last day for Pavano, Crain and Hudson to accept arbitration offers is next Tuesday, November 30. My guess is that all three will opt for free agency, with Crain being the only one I could see going the other way. That would result in a nice flurry of extra draft picks for the Twins next June while leaving them with some cash to tinker with this offseason.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
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16 comments:
I don't expect Hudson to accept arbitration either, but wasn't it you who had a "source who would know" suggesting he would accept? Or was that someone else?
I don't expect Hudson to accept arbitration either, but wasn't it you who had a "source who would know" suggesting he would accept?
Well, I think that was more his opinion based on a strong feeling that the team doesn't want to bring him back next year (a sentiment I've heard echoed by numerous people). And I disagreed with that opinion. My take has always been that Hudson would decline arb without a second thought.
Do you think Cuddy will be a B or an A next year?
Do you think Cuddy will be a B or an A next year?
If he has another season like 2010, it's very possible he could be neither.
Regarding Hudson, Ken Rosenthal had the following bit in his column on FoxSports.com today:
"The Twins offered arbitration to second baseman Orlando Hudson, a Type B free agent, but almost certainly under the condition that Hudson would reject.
Teams often make such gentlemen’s agreements with Type B free agents in order to collect a supplement draft pick. No harm is done to the signing team, which does not lose a pick.
The Twins, when they signed Hudson to a one-year, $5 million free-agent contract, agreed not to offer him arbitration if he was a Type A free agent. Hudson likely reciprocated by agreeing not to accept if he was a Type B."
"If he has another season like 2010, it's very possible he could be neither."
Are you suggesting the team MVP and the most versatile player in MLB probably of all time isnt even worth a measly draft pick?
I don't think it should matter if Cuddy is a type A or B next year. The Twins should absolutely not offer him arb. They don't want to be on the hook paying him over 10 mil again in 2012.
Cuddyer would be a great buy at 5 mil. But he is no where near worth 12 mil in 2011. Mauer and Justin are much better buys for their high contracts.
I predict free agent moves based on the Kohls discount rack. JJ Hardy's jersey got knocked from $65 to $13, so he probably won't be back.
Uhhh...Mauer is not a bargain at $23 million. Sorry. He's worth $15-$18 million.
Crain will come back. He has a chance to be the closer in a couple years. This year he steps into Matt's role as set up man.
Casilla may move to short if they sign Hudson, and second if they sign Hardy.If he is at SS he bats last and is a base stealing threat before Span the second time through the order. I like that. Speed at #9 is almost like a second leadoff hitter.
Twins are set if Stache comes back. Duenslinger moves to #4 starter after Frankie, Carl, Baker. Cuddy played all over the field last year so his hitting numbers suffered while he emphasized defense. He will bounce back if he stops chasing sliders in the dirt on 2 strikes. Thome comes back. Young hits between Mauer and Justin next year please
Holy smokes. "Cuddy played all over the field last year so his hitting numbers suffered while he emphasized defense." I love these excuses for ball players.
I can actually see that Cuddy comment having some merit. While it seems stupid, some players really do have their batting affected by position changes. I'm going to give Cuddy a 15% chance at getting better solely because of a stable position,
Holy Smokes. Those of us that have coached ball games, and I am around 600 now, know that defensive changes affects offensive production. Instead of thinking and working on hitting, Cuddy was taking reps at 2B, and 3b and 1b. It takes its toll. Not to mention the additional bumps and bruises of all those bad hops he took. Like with Hardy, people decry his down year offensively. Those of us that have had a bum wrist know it hurts a lot and wrist injuries are the slowest to heal. Even after he returned to the lineup I guarantee you he played with pain.
He didn't have an off year offensively, he is a career .270 hitter.
Anon, your coaching experience is impressive. It's amazing that a major league manager would anonymously comment on a Twins blog. You must be a MLB manager, otherwise you're trying to suggest a few years as a tee ball coach makes you more qualified to opine that a professional baseball player, who is paid copious amounts of money to play a game, would be excused from performing at a level befitting of his gigantic salary because the coach asked him to play a different position. A regular old non-MLB manager like myself would think that as a professional Cuddy should be able to put up at least average numbers at the plate regardless of position - sort of like any other professional, an accountant for example, might be asked to take on additional duties in a time of need. But obviously, since I'm not a MLB manager, I have no idea what I'm talking about. Thank you greatly for your amazing wisdom.
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