It seems I've got some positive mojo going right now. Last Thursday, I wrote an article about J.J. Hardy, noting that his disappointing numbers up to this point have largely been the result of a pesky wrist injury and that with the ailment behind him he should be primed for a much better second half. Since that point, Hardy has gone 10-for-26 (.385) with three doubles and four RBI in seven games. A day after my Hardy post, I wrote a blurb about Francisco Liriano, noting that a lack of good fortune and support from his teammates had led to his unspectacular W/L record and ERA leading up to the All-Star break and positing that "I fully expect Liriano to be one of the American League's best pitchers during the second half." Liriano has won both of his subsequent starts in dominant fashion, allowing only two runs over 14 2/3 innings.
Now, I'm wishing I could work some of that magic on Joe Mauer, who remains one of the team's biggest underachievers. Fresh off signing the largest contract in franchise history, Mauer is following up his MVP season in 2009 with a completely ordinary campaign, as he enters tonight's play with a .297/.367/.429 hitting line to go along with four home runs and 41 RBI. Those aren't exactly bad numbers for a catcher, but considering that Mauer is a historical talent right in the middle of his prime and set to start earning $23 million per season next year, his performance has been more than a slight let-down.
Beyond the underwhelming numbers listed above, there are several aspects of Mauer's game that have come under fire. Here are a few:
* One can hardly make the argument that Mauer hasn't played enough -- he's among the league leaders for innings caught and is on pace for the second-most plate appearances of his career -- but the timing of his days off have sometimes been bewildering. (Most notably when he sat out the last game of a crucial series against the Tigers in Detroit a couple weeks ago despite the All-Star break being on deck.)
* His defensive work has been noticeably worse than in the past; he's not moving around well to block pitches behind the plate and his throws don't have their usual zip or accuracy. It's gotten the point where some fans are actively calling for Drew Butera to catch games more frequently. Considering that Mauer has won two straight Gold Gloves and Butera is one of the worst hitters in the major leagues, that's not a good sign.
* We're nearing August and Mauer still hasn't hit a single ball out of his home park. Overall, he's managed just four home runs in 357 plate appearances, which is two less than he hit in 122 plate appearances as a 21-year-old rookie back in 2004. Many folks, like myself, expected the catcher's power output to pick up as we've moved deeper into the summer months, but it's not happening. Mauer has hit only one home run per month and at this rate is on pace to finish with just six on the year. That's an astonishing drop-off for a 27-year-old who went deep 28 times in his breakout campaign last year.
* Most disturbing of all for Mauer has got to be his increasingly clear lack of confidence. Never has it been on display more obviously than on Tuesday night, when Mauer stepped up to the plate in the bottom of the seventh of a tie game against the Indians, with runners on first and second, and attempted to bunt his way on base. The logic behind the move was technically sound -- there was a ton of room on the left side and had Mauer properly executed he'd have loaded the bases with one out for Jason Kubel -- but the implications here are grave. The team needed one run to take a lead that they could hand over to their bullpen, and rather than step up like a No. 3 hitter and reigning MVP should, Mauer elected to defer the responsibility to Kubel, who is having a thoroughly mediocre year and is miscast as clean-up hitter. Kubel has a .680 career OPS against lefties, so Mauer's move was essentially tantamount to passing the duty of driving in the go-ahead run on to Nick Punto (bit of an exaggeration, but not much).
Mauer, who last year led the league in slugging percentage, and was not long ago being mentioned alongside Albert Pujols in the "best hitter in the game" debate, laying down a bunt with the game on the line. It's about the most depressing thing I've seen all year.
When interviewed after the game, Mauer came up with a lengthy list of statements defending the decision, but this nugget strikes me as the most telling: "I'm not feeling the greatest at the plate right now, and that factors in."
You don't say, Joe?
Mauer started this season hitting at an all-world clip, just as he did throughout the '09 campaign. Against the Royals on April 24, Mauer went 5-for-6 with a double, a triple and two RBI. At that point he was hitting .381 with a 1.025 OPS and nine of his 24 hits had gone for extra bases. The early signs were there for another MVP run.
Since that point, however, Mauer has hit just .276/.344/.394 in 66 games, managing only three homers while grounding into 14 double plays. Those figures -- particularly the batting average and on-base percentage -- are staggering. Who would ever expect such an accomplished hitter to be posting such pedestrian numbers over an extended period of time, especially when he's 27 years old and surrounded by better hitters in the lineup than ever before?
No, I don't believe Mauer has forgotten how to hit. Nor do I believe he's resting on his laurels after signing a big contract.
I think Mauer has been hurt. In fact, I know he's been hurt. He was sidelined by a lingering heel injury back in May, and he's reportedly also been bothered by a sore shoulder, not to mention other various ailments that are likely unbeknownst to fans and the media. I think these injuries have taken a significant toll on Mauer's performance, and unfortunately it's tough to fully heal when you're regularly playing the most demanding position on the baseball field.
There's not much the Twins can do to solve this problem, either. Even at his reduced level of effectiveness, Mauer is still a far better option than the alternatives, with Butera sporting a .422 OPS and neither Wilson Ramos nor Jose Morales appearing ready in Triple-A. With the Twins in the midst of a tight three-team race in the AL Central, they can't afford to give Mauer a couple weeks off in the hopes that he can shake off these ailments and regain some of his strength.
I wish I could say that I expected the same type of surge from Mauer as we've seen from Hardy and Liriano recently, but I'm just not seeing the signs. He remains an intelligent and valuable player at the plate, but he's just not the dominating force with the bat that he was a year ago.
And if he himself doesn't believe that he can step up and lead this lineup, how can we?
Thursday, July 22, 2010
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25 comments:
That is a very accurate writing about The Franchise Player at this particular moment in franchise history. Could have been so great, might even come out as a nice season...
Excuse or not, I think Mauer is feeling the pressure of the big contract and the expectations of continuing last year's fantastic numbers.
We're seeing him really 'struggle' for the first time in his young career with his confidence and it's tough to see.
Understanding that his HR numbers are down from last season's anomaly, he's still hitting 2B's at a much higher clip than ever before. Right now he's sitting at a 2B per every 11.32AB whereas the last few seasons have been between 15-17.5...so it is safe to say that the park is affecting those balls that have gone over the fence.
The catching aspect it's toll on him concern me most, but I believe he's in a rut (hovering @ .300) and will eventually get back in order. If not, ugh...that's a lot of money locked up for a long time.
Understanding that his HR numbers are down from last season's anomaly, he's still hitting 2B's at a much higher clip than ever before. Right now he's sitting at a 2B per every 11.32AB whereas the last few seasons have been between 15-17.5...so it is safe to say that the park is affecting those balls that have gone over the fence.
Home runs turning into doubles was something I expected this year (see the sixth paragraph of this post), just not nearly to this degree.
"...but the timing of his days off have sometimes been bewildering. (Most notably when he sat out the last game of a crucial series against the Tigers in Detroit a couple weeks ago despite the All-Star break being on deck.)"
Bewildering? I remember pretty clearly Mauer sat out due to a sore shoulder (everyone was complaining about him still playing the all-star game). Plus, Pavano was pitching that day, and its my understanding that he prefers Butera because Butera is smaller and can crouch lower (or something like that). I think Pavano's opinion became know around that time too. So not really all that bewildering.
Good point about Joe hurting though. I kinda of feel like that might be the case, that he just has some nagging injuries. I could see him not wanting to say anything for fear that the Twins (and fans) will start telling him he can't play catcher anymore.
Bewildering? I remember pretty clearly Mauer sat out due to a sore shoulder (everyone was complaining about him still playing the all-star game).
So if he was too hurt to play in an extremely meaningful game that Sunday, why was he OK to play in an exhibition two days later? Would have much rather he played (at least DH) in that Sunday game and taken the three days off.
Nice job of pointing out that there are a series of issues involved.
The physical issues are to be expected with a catcher - to a point. But what concerns me most is his mental approach at this point.
As you indicated, the notion of a 3-hitter fearing a double-play and electing to bunt is extremely worrisome.
Maybe Morneau's return would make him feel more "protected" at the plate? I don't know. But something has to change with his approach, and soon.
The answer might lie in putting Punto on the freaking bench and let Valencia start. Then Butera can catch and Mauer can DH (in the 5th spot with Young in the 3rd). Punto obviously goes to the bench because we can't afford two offensive liabilities.
Bewildering off days include several off days on sweep opportunties even when we were playing extremely well.
Off comment....but watching the Twins 5-0 victory over the Orioles on 7-22-10....can anybody explain why Nick Punto tagged second before returning to first on a flyball to left-center with one out ( and he was doubled-off)? Replay shows he advanced to second watching the fly ball in flight....once the CF caught it he took 2 steps back towards first..then went BACK to 2nd and TAGGED(?) the base and tried to get back to first before the throw from the CF.....and was out by a mile. What gives....am I missing something?
Thanks ...Bill St. Paul MN
Jose Morales is ready to play as a backup C in the Majors. No, he's now rolling a Triple A right now, but I guarantee you he'll hit more than Drew "Rob Wilfong" Butera. I was fine with leaving Morales in AAA ball while he got healthy, but he's healthy now and should be playing with the big club. Instead, we're going to see even more of auto-out Butera, because Gardy likes the way he plays behind the plate. (which would be fine if he were Jim Sundberg, but he's NOT)
The only reason for Butera to get more PT and to keep him over Morales is if he is somehow causing the pitchers to perform better. I defy anyone to prove causation.
was it because Nick was STANDING on 2nd at or before the CF caught the ball?
Bill,
That Punto blunder baffled me as well. He's as idiotic of a baserunner as I've ever seen (okay, he's no Carlos Gomez, but still). The next time someone throws out the "but Nicky plays the game the right way" they should be directed to that replay.
I'm a little tired of the "Mauer's hurt" excuse. He's a catcher; he's going to get dinged up. His struggles go beyond that.
And injury doesn't explain The Bunt. To me, the fact that he's not willing to be The Guy is much more troubling than his slump of late. He's too good of a hitter to keep hitting at a .275 clip, but if he's unwilling to step up and deliver clutch hits down the stretch, that's a huge problem. Tells me he has no interest in being a leader, and I'm sorry, $184 million is supposed to buy a high degree of leadership.
Good column. I don't think the Twins can afford NOT to put Mauer on the DL. I believe he is hurt. And I believe that a struggling Joe Mauer is a psychological drag on this team that goes far beyond the numbers he puts up.
I won't blame Mauer for the struggles of Slowey, Blackburn and Baker but I do have to wonder if he isn't taking his misery with him when he gets behind the plate. I also have to wonder if that heel bruise and other miscelleneous injuries aren't affecting his catching.
Will he heal if he continues catching regularly or would a stint on the DL get him closer to healthy? Hard to say but please remember that last year he had significant time off at the beginning of the year so "time off" in the middle of this year may be what he needs.
Just as this team responded when Morneau was finally put on the DL last September, I think the team would respond better to the short-term absence of Joe Mauer than they do to a struggling Joe Mauer.
I see a DL stint now as an investment in August and September (and hopefully October) when this team is REALLY going to need Joe Mauer playing as "JOE MAUER" not as some paler imitation of himself.
"Jose Morales is ready to play as a backup C in the Majors. No, he's now rolling a Triple A right now, but I guarantee you he'll hit more than Drew "Rob Wilfong" Butera."
Wilfong was not THAT bad a hitter. He batted .313 in 1979. Drew Butera would be more accurately compared to his father, Sal.
Bill, I'm not usually one to defend Punto, but I've seen a couple of instances already this season where umpires made some pretty iffy out calls resulting from a runner not 'retracing' his steps and touching 2B on his way back to first in that situation. Could have been just being overly cautious but if you're going to get thrown out anyway, not much point in being that cautious.
As for Mauer, without knowing the exact nature of his injuries, it's impossible to tell whether taking a bit of time off would make a difference or if it's something that is going to require weeks or months to recover from. If there's nothing that anyone can do right now but let him play through it, then it makes sense to me to at least drop him in the order to a spot that would more appropriately fit his level of productivity.
And injury doesn't explain The Bunt. To me, the fact that he's not willing to be The Guy is much more troubling than his slump of late. He's too good of a hitter to keep hitting at a .275 clip, but if he's unwilling to step up and deliver clutch hits down the stretch, that's a huge problem. Tells me he has no interest in being a leader, and I'm sorry, $184 million is supposed to buy a high degree of leadership.
You decipher that single play in one of 162 games as insight to Mauer's desire to be a leader or his leadership abilities in general? His ultra high-level of play over the past 5 years is erased?
It's a matter of confidence right now at the plate, or lack thereof, and the reasons could be many... but good lord, can we possibly scrutinize this single event any more?
Anon,
Okay, give me an example of Joe's leadership.
How come he can't seem to get along with half of his starters?
Wouldn't a true leader be able to maintain stellar defense in light of a dry spell at the plate? Not Joe. Defensively he's been poor this year. So much so that PEOPLE ARE CLAMORING FOR MORE DREW BUTERA. They'd rather have the worst hitter in the major leagues than the reigning MVP. How insane is that?
Watch this team. They don't have a leader right now. Fundamentally poor, lacking passion, very inconsistent.
A leader would, even in the midst of a slump, say you know what? I got this hit. I may be struggling but I'm going to come through here. Instead he gives up and puts all the pressure on a teammate, and then subtly throws that teammate under the bus after the game.
It's one play, sure (though Joe has done it before, in a bigger situation - Game 163 two years ago). It's indicative of a much bigger problem, in my opinion.
This is the Delmon Young show this year, I've been saying it all year especially after the first month of the season, he is the most consistent hitter we have along with morneau who is on the dl. I agree with JB maybe he does need to go on the DL and get some rest, butera is horrible at the plate but behind it lately he has been more than making up for it, imo. When you watch the games and hear Dick and Bert talk about Butera being preferred by the pitchers that is sad, but the way our staff has been we should be trying anything to get somewhat of a consistency out of them. Pavano is the only pitcher we can trust to go 6+ innings, winning his last 7 outings, Liriano has amazing stuff but he just needs to make sure he gets past the 2nd inning without giving up 3 runs and he can settle down and go 7 or 8 innings. Either way something needs to happen with Mauer, go on the DL drop in the batting order something because he really isn't helping us as much as he is expected to hitting 3rd in the lineup.
In Souhan's column on July 13, he describes Mauer as "weary" and says that Mauer used several versions of the word "frustrated." I think Mauer is probably mentally exhausted.
It may have started with all the speculation about whether the Twins would ink him to a new deal -- I know he played it cool but he had to be thinking about it. Then there was all the "hoopla" over the contract and the increased expectations resulting from his MVP year and the new contract. Plus there is the contract with IMG and his increased marketing opportunities -- although that is within his control, its hard not to wonder if he has a handle on managing the increased spotlight. Then there was the move to Target Field -- the change in routine plus very high expectations for the team. Then there was the heel bruise - something that takes a fairly long time to heal fully as I understand it. And having to adjust to the special shoe and seeing what limitations the lingering pain may place on him. Then there was the pitching staff melt-down -- even though I think his own struggles may not have helped the pitching staff, their struggles have to weigh on him. Then there was the All-Star voting -- a great honor to be the top-vote getter but again increasing the spotlight, the obligations and the expectations.
Overall he just looks (and from his reported comments, sounds) to me like a young man who is a little burned out and who needs a break (even though he might not prescribe one for himself).
Ed Bast,
Let me clarify a couple things... I never said Joe was a leader or mentioned he should be. Nor do I believe that due to his contract that he has to take on that responsibility. This is probably where I am disagreeing with you.
My main contention with all of this discussion on Mauer following "Buntgate" is all of a sudden the legions are questioning his leadership and breaking out the "Kirby Puckett wouldn't have done that!" rants when up to now, he's never been that kind of guy on this team.
Would I like for him to be that guy? Sure, who wouldn't. But if it isn't in his make up, his contract certainly doesn't make that a requirement. And I'd rather he then lead simply by his daily approach on the field... and bunt aside, he's done that for 5 years at a very high level.
As I mentioned, the "play" IMO is more of a reflection of where his confidence is at the moment, NOT some hidden passage into his leadership psyche.
In regards to his defense, I agree that it has been overrated to a degree but a solid backstop with that batting pedigree gets my start every time.
As far as his relationship with the staff goes, you didn't hear any complaints when they were winning last year. I just don't put too much stock into all that.
You are right, there is no 'leader' on this team and someone needs to step up, but from everything we've learned over these years about Mauer...I just don't know if he fits that role. But he is 26 with hopefully his best years ahead of him, so who knows, maybe that becomes part of his evolution.
Anon,
You're right, the leadership role doesn't seem to suit him. And it's very easy to take the "lead by example" route when you hit .365 with 28 home runs. A true leader is there regardless of personal performance - ultimate team guy, etc.
But I will disagree with you in that I believe $20+ mil per year should buy a degree of leadership (also it should buy a swing from him in that situation). That's a huge committment from the organization, and I don't think it's unreasonable to ask Mauer to carry the team on his shoulders if not every game then at least every now and again. Up to this point it hasn't been his M.O., and perhaps he's struggled this year with that burden.
More than anything I want somebody to display some leadership on this club (beginning with the manager, but that's another story), and it would be nice to see our exorbitantly-paid superstar do so. Maybe I should just concede that he'll never be a Kirby Puckett and look elsewhere. Maybe I should just cross my fingers that Delmon Young gets up in every key situation down the stretch. Who knows.
The thing that bothers me is that it doesn't seem like Mauer has the same passion this year.
The bunt play didn't bother me, it is always a good thing to have the bases loaded and that was a high percentage way to get that done. What bothered me about that play was that Mauer wasn't accepting the challenge of getting a big hit off the lefty and trying to break out of his slump. It's almost like he is feeling sorry for himself because he is slumping. Last year he would have stepped up to the plate and tried to put the team ahead. Mauer in a slump is still better than 90% of the players in the league and last year he knew that. This year he doesn't even seem to believe it. That really concerns me.
He is one of the best players in the league, whether he believes it or not. Once he gets his confidence and passion back, he will be fine.
But I will disagree with you in that I believe $20+ mil per year should buy a degree of leadership (also it should buy a swing from him in that situation). That's a huge committment from the organization, and I don't think it's unreasonable to ask Mauer to carry the team on his shoulders if not every game then at least every now and again. Up to this point it hasn't been his M.O., and perhaps he's struggled this year with that burden.
We're going to have to agree to disagree on that in terms of the size of his contract requires him to be the leader of this team (especially since opinions of leadership cover a broad range of subjectivity).
I too agree that Mauer should have swung in that 'situation' and would have certainly rather seen him do so... but it can't be reiterated enough that the single play reflects only his struggle with confidence at the plate THIS moment and I would argue that aside from it... those hits you're looking for have been happening each season.
Joe sits with a career .342BA/.455OBP with RISP and a .366/.503 split with RISP and two outs --- all the more reason he should have swung away several days ago but all the more signs that he is struggling to find his confidence, not his ability to lead.
He had better be a team leader, he was the top QB (ultimate leader in sports) in the state and was highly recruited to play for major college programs! Had he not shown some "natural born leader" I doubt he would have been offered so many lucrative scholarships.
Leading isn't the problem, he's always been a quiet guy, and he's just in a slump. Injuries or not, he's just plain slumping. He's too good a hitter to stay this way the rest of the season (if he is indeed not really really banged up), and too good a defensive catcher to continue like this.
Mauer will be fine, this is just a small blip or blemish in the scope of his so far stellar career (which, by the way, is still young).
Whomever coined the term "buntgate," kudos, I got a good laugh out of it!
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