Expectations and Reality

Every spring, we (or in the case of this past spring, I) have written up a series of Position Analysis pieces, previewing the outlook for each position on the Twins' roster. This year, I made actual predictions as to what hitting line the starter at each offensive position would post, along with their anticipated home run and RBI totals. Today, I thought I'd take a look back and see how each player fared against those expectations.

CATCHER

Joe Mauer

Predicted Line: .315/.405/.500, 15 HR, 70 RBI

Actual Line: .328/.413/.451, 9 HR, 85 RBI

Comments: Obviously I was hoping for Mauer to take a bit more of a step forward in the power department this year, but he exceeded my expectations in all other areas.

FIRST BASE

Justin Morneau

Predicted Line: .285/.355/.540, 35 HR, 105 RBI

Actual Line: .300/.374/.499, 23 HR, 129 RBI

Comments: As with Mauer, Morneau came up short in terms of his power output, but made up for it by producing 15-20 points higher than expected in the AVG/OBP columns and driving in tons of runs.

SECOND BASE

Brendan Harris

Predicted Line: .275/.340/.450, 14 HR, 70 RBI

Actual Line: .265/.327/.394, 7 HR, 49 RBI

Comments: Obviously I was too optimistic in assuming that Harris would build on his success from last year. He took steps backward across the board.

THIRD BASE

Mike Lamb

Predicted Line: .280/.345/.430, 10 HR, 50 RBI

Actual Line: .233/.276/.322, 1 HR, 32 RBI

Comments: OK, seriously... who saw that coming?

SHORTSTOP

Adam Everett

Predicted Line: .240/.290/.345, 5 HR, 40 RBI

Actual Line: .213/.278/.323, 2 HR, 20 RBI

Comments: I predicted Everett would be bad; he was worse. He probably would have hit or surpassed my predicted HR/RBI totals had he played in more than 48 games.

LEFT FIELD
Delmon Young

Predicted Line: .295/.340/.480, 20 HR, 110 RBI

Actual Line: .290/.336/.405, 10 HR, 69 RBI

Comments: He was right there with his average and on-base percentage, but he took zero strides in his power-hitting game, which is gravely disappointing.

CENTER FIELD

Carlos Gomez

Predicted Line: .265/.315/.390, 10 HR, 55 RBI

Actual Line: .258/.296/.360, 7 HR, 59 RBI

Comments: Gomez came pretty close to matching my expectations, which certainly weren't all that high.

RIGHT FIELD

Michael Cuddyer

Predicted Line: .275/.365/.470, 20 HR, 90 RBI

Actual Line: .249/.330/.369, 3 HR, 36 RBI

Comments: As much as I'm not a big fan of Cuddyer, I was pretty optimistic about what he could accomplish this year nestled between Mauer and Morneau. Sadly, injuries destroyed his season.

DESIGNATED HITTER

Jason Kubel

Predicted Line: .310/.380/.500, 20 HR, 85 RBI

Actual Line: .272/.335/.471, 20 HR, 78 RBI

Comments: This was probably my boldest prediction. Obviously, Kubel came up short in the average department, but the other numbers were pretty close. I'll note that after a couple poor months, he hit .290/.364/.519 from June through September for an 883 OPS which is nearly identical to the 880 I predicted.